J.P. Morgan Asset Management compiles a data-heavy overview of global markets, covering growth, inflation, policy, and asset class behavior across cycles. It highlights resilient consumer balance sheets alongside slowing growth and warns that profit margins face pressure despite expectations for about 8% earnings growth, challenging overly optimistic forecasts.
Guide to the Markets 1Q 2022
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Research
71 Pages
Key Takeaways
Earnings Growth Expectations: Consensus forecasts call for roughly 8% EPS growth in 2022, though margin compression risks could materially reduce realized profits.
Valuation Reversion Trends: The S&P 500 forward P/E sits near 16.65x versus a 25 year average of 16.84x, suggesting valuations have normalized after prior expansion.
Labor Market Tightness: Unemployment is projected to reach about 3.4%, reflecting continued labor demand even as payroll growth slows from earlier 2022 levels.
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