Long-Term Asset Return Study – The Ultimate Guide to Long-Term Investing

Deutsche Bank

Jim Reid

Research

52 Pages

Jim Reid published the 20th anniversary edition of Deutsche Bank’s flagship Long-Term Study, which examines how asset classes (mainly global stocks and bonds) have performed across a wide range of macroeconomic, policy, and valuation environments, drawing on data all the way from the 18th century to today.

Published Date: October 27, 2025

As of 10/27/2025.

Key Takeaways

Nominal Growth Anchor: Long-term equity and bond returns are closely linked to nominal GDP growth, which has averaged 5.7% globally since 1900.
Valuations Matter: Low starting P/E and CAPE ratios, high dividend yields, and elevated bond yields consistently predict stronger long-term returns.
Equity Resilience: Over 25 years, equities outperform bonds in roughly 78% of periods, with only a 0.8% chance of underperforming cash in nominal terms.
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