M&A Midyear Outlook 2026: A Winner’s Paradox

Bain & Company

Article

9 Pages

Bain & Company explains why leading companies continue to pursue acquisitions despite an uncertain economic backdrop, while weaker competitors often delay deals. The article argues that market leaders are widening their competitive advantages through disciplined M&A, creating a “winner’s paradox” where the companies least pressured to transact are often the most active acquirers.

Key Takeaways

Megadeals dominate: Transactions larger than $5 billion generated about 75% of the increase in global strategic M&A value, driving much of the market's recovery.
Large deals rebound: Strategic M&A value increased 15% year over year, supported primarily by a resurgence in large-cap transactions despite continued geopolitical and financing uncertainty.
AI adoption accelerates: Nearly 45% of M&A practitioners used generative AI during dealmaking in 2025, more than double the adoption rate from the previous year.

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