Market Charts: Turning Data into Knowledge Second Quarter 2019

Wells Fargo

Research

112 Pages

April 2019

Wells Fargo presents a chart-driven overview of global markets, using data across equities, rates, inflation, and macro trends to frame how current conditions compare with history. The paper highlights elevated valuations and rising rate regimes, suggesting markets may be underestimating volatility risks as several indicators approach historical extremes.

Key Takeaways

Equity Valuations Elevated: U.S. equities trade near top-decile historical valuations, with multiples approaching levels seen in only ~10% of observations since 1990.

Rates Regime Shift: Policy rates rising above 5% mark a sharp reversal from the 0% era, with bond volatility reaching multi-decade highs.

Concentration Risk Rising: Top 10 stocks now represent over 30% of index weight, nearing prior peak concentration levels observed in early 2000s.

Markets

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