2012 Review 2013 Outlook

Joseph Brusuelas, Richard Yamarone

Research

21 Pages

This paper reviews the defining global economic developments of 2012 while outlining the major forces likely to shape 2013. It explores central bank policy, housing, fiscal risks, and global markets, arguing that extraordinary monetary easing could remain the dominant driver of asset prices and economic growth.

Key Takeaways

Global Easing Continues: Central banks cut interest rates 5.5 times for every increase in 2012, with Brazil reducing rates by 375 basis points.
Housing Recovery Builds: U.S. housing starts climbed from 720,000 to 861,000 annualized and were expected to contribute about 2% to 2013 economic growth.
Fiscal Risks Persist: Bloomberg estimates the U.S. fiscal cliff agreement would still create a 1.7% fiscal drag in 2013 while 77.1% of households faced higher payroll taxes.
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