PGIM explores how structural forces like demographics, debt, and productivity are shaping long-term capital market expectations, arguing that the future investment landscape may look materially different from the past. The paper suggests that slower global growth and aging populations could anchor returns lower than historical norms, challenging traditional portfolio assumptions.
2021 Best Ideas – The Future in Focus
PGIM
Research
17 Pages
Key Takeaways
Lower Growth Regime: Global GDP growth is projected to slow toward ~2–3% annually, down from ~3–4% in prior decades.
Aging Demographics Impact: By 2030, over 20% of populations in developed markets will be age 65+, reducing labor force growth and economic expansion.
Return Expectations Reset: Expected equity returns may fall to ~5–6% annually, compared to ~8–10% historical averages. Top Figures/Charts:
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