2023 Outlook: Recession, recovery, and rebound

Wells Fargo

Research

28 Pages

Wells Fargo Investment Institute maps a path from recession to recovery to rebound, arguing that the pain of tighter financial conditions can create clearer entry points. A key historical framing stands out: bonds logged two straight negative years, a rarity not seen since 1958 and 1959. The outlook also lays out concrete targets across equities, rates, and real assets while emphasizing that timing and volatility will matter.

Date published: December 2022

Source: Wells Fargo Investment Institute

Key Takeaways

Staged roadmap: Expect a recession phase, then recovery, then rebound as inflation eases and policy tightness fades.
Quality focus: Emphasizes higher quality assets and disciplined rebalancing while earnings and liquidity stay pressured.
Diversification matters: Highlights the role of bonds, real assets, and cash as volatility buffers, not return guarantees.

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