2026 Investment Outlook: The synchronized shift

Robeco

Research

27 Pages

Robeco’s 2026 Investment Outlook argues that global growth could enjoy a rare synchronized late cycle upswing next year. A fading tariff shock, AI linked productivity and lagged rate cuts support demand even as inflation stays near but above targets. The authors weigh this base case against stagflation and overheating risks, then map what it all means for equities, bonds, and commodities.

Date published: November 2025

Key Takeaways

Synchronized late cycle: Global growth lifts together as tariffs ease, manufacturing improves, and policy becomes a little more supportive.
Sticky but contained inflation: US and euro area prices stay slightly above targets while AI productivity helps offset wage and tariff pressure.
Positioning for harmony: Portfolios lean toward global equities, selective emerging markets, quality credit, and real assets while avoiding stretched high yield.
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