2026 Outlook: Ride the Power Race and Supply Waves

Goldman Sachs

Research

18 Pages

The US-China AI and geopolitical power race and global energy supply waves drive Goldman Sachs’ analysts’ key convictions. Goldman Sachs Research’s cyclical macro base case of sturdy global GDP growth and 50 basis points of Fed rate cuts in 2026 is again supportive of top-down commodity returns.

Date published: December 18, 2025

Key Takeaways

Geopolitics and commodities: Commodities sit at the center of US China competition for AI capability, reserves and trade influence.
Energy supply waves: Oil faces a brief oversupplied phase while a longer LNG wave reshapes global gas pricing and trade.
LNG wave scale: LNG export capacity could rise more than 50% by 2030, encouraging cheaper prices and new demand sources.
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