2026 Outlook: The Year Ahead in 14 Sparks

Apollo

Torsten Slok

Research

23 Pages

Torsten Slok believes high inflation, higher-for-longer interest rates and uneven growth create a complex backdrop, akin to the 1970s. He expects higher-for-longer interest rates to remain, with direct implications for all rate-sensitive investment strategies.
Date Published: December 2025

Key Takeaways

Recession Risk: The combination of weakening growth and persistent inflation increases the likelihood of further market turbulence, requiring investors to be cautious as they position portfolios in 2026.
AI Driving The Macro Outlook: The AI buildout has become the foundational pillar of US growth, driving capex investments, equity valuations and consumer wealth.
Divergence Between the US and Europe: The consensus expects US inflation to remain elevated because of ongoing tariffs. Europe faces none of these trade frictions and therefore will likely see inflation and interest rates fall in 2026. This divergence is unusual and increasingly relevant for global asset allocations.
VIEW FULL REPORT

Join our newsletter to have all of this content + Exclusive Newsletter Bonus Content delivered to your inbox every week

Related Content

Market Outlooks
2026 U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook
Feb 2026
Alternative Assets
Alternative Investments: Outlook 2026
Jan 2026
Market Outlooks
The Short and Long 2026 Q1 Macro Investment View
Jan 2026

The information contained in this communication is of a general nature for informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. The information contained within this communication reflects the opinions of those referenced herein, and do not reflect the opinions of The Idea Farm, L.P. and its affiliates. Such opinions expressed herein are as of the date of production and are subject to change at any time without notice due to various factors, including changing market conditions or tax laws. Where data or information prepared by third parties is presented, no representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by The Idea Farm, L.P. or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, The Idea Farm, L.P. does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information and does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date. Any links to third party websites are offered only for use at your own discretion. The Idea Farm L.P., and its affiliates, are separate and unaffiliated from any third parties listed herein and are not responsible for their products, services, policies or the content of their website. All investments are subject to varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy or product referenced directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, perform equally to any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.

Scroll to Top