2026 Q1 Outlook

Citadel

Scott Rubner

Research

24 Pages

Scott Rubner argues early 2026 market behavior will hinge on retail flows, rotation, profits, policy, and positioning. The note claims younger households have lifted equity and fund ownership by more than 300% since 2020, suggesting participation is not just a cyclical blip. It also frames policy as turning from a drag into a tailwind, which could reinforce risk appetite.

Date published: December 18, 2025

Source: Bloomberg as compiled by Citadel Securities, GMI, as of December 18th, 2025.

Key Takeaways

Retail structural force: Household participation is framed as durable, with cash balances still high.
Leadership broadening: Rotation beyond mega cap leadership is portrayed as constructive for market breadth.
Policy tailwinds: Fiscal and monetary settings are presented as supportive, even if dispersion stays elevated.
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