Divergent Paths

Man Group

Research

16 Pages

Man Group believes 2026 is likely to be an environment of high uncertainty, with significant geopolitical risks and economies weighed down by tariffs and other policies. This is likely to result in slowing global growth: with several key economies at risk of entering recession.

 

Source: Statista Market Insights, as of 3 February 2025.
Source: Defence expenditures for 2024: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI); interest expenditures for 2023: International Monetary Fund (IMF); social expenditures for 2022 source: Our World in Data, sourcing the OECD and the World Bank.

Key Takeaways

Divergent macro paths: Outlook expects mild US recession while eurozone Japan and parts of emerging Asia see relative resilience.
Policy fragmentation risk: Central banks and fiscal authorities move in different directions, creating new currency volatility and political strain.
AI and inequality: AI investment drives growth and utility costs yet may deepen wealth gaps and reshape labor markets and spending.
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