Apollo Global Management examines how a Strait of Hormuz disruption could ripple through oil, gas, shipping, and inflation. The main point is that the global shock could be meaningful, but the U.S. may absorb it better than in past cycles because it is now a net energy exporter.
Energy demand and supply and the Strait of Hormuz
Apollo
Torsten Slok
Research
58 Pages
Key Takeaways
Hormuz Flows Matter: Oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged about 20 million b/d in 2024 and 1Q25, underscoring how much supply depends on the route.
China Is Most Exposed: China buys 89% of Iran’s oil exports, showing how a disruption could hit Asian supply chains and reshape the regional burden of any oil shock.
US Macro Hit Looks Modest: Apollo estimates oil at $100 through 2027 would lift headline inflation by 0.7%-pt, trim real GDP by 0.1%-pt, and raise unemployment by 0.1%-pt at peak.
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