Principal Asset Management maps a 2026 outlook shaped by energy shock, slower growth, and delayed central bank easing. It sees the U.S. as relatively resilient, but notes tighter financial conditions, stickier inflation, and narrow room for policy mistakes across equities and fixed income.
Global Market Perspectives: Hope for the best, ready for the worst
Principal Asset Management
Research
24 Pages
Key Takeaways
Energy Shock Bites: U.S. benchmark crude reached $118.35, while March consensus 2026 GDP forecasts fell to 1.2% for the Eurozone and 1.1% for China.
Tax Boost Fades: Average household tax refunds rise more than $750, but oil at $90 per barrel would fully erase that benefit for the average household.
Credit Still Holds: U.S. investment grade spreads were 89 bps on March 31, 2026 versus a 10 year average range midpoint well above Treasury yields alone.
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