Markets Outlook 2026: Some Like It Hot

Goldman Sachs

Research

16 Pages

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research sets out a 2026 markets outlook where sturdy global growth, falling inflation and measured rate cuts extend the cycle. The piece argues that this mix supports equities and emerging markets while a strong artificial intelligence theme, rich valuations and China trade shocks keep volatility elevated. It forecasts global growth around 2.8 % in 2026, above consensus but still without clear late cycle excesses.

Key Takeaways

Cycle extends: Describes a backdrop of solid global growth, gentle Fed easing and anchored inflation that favors risk assets.
AI and valuations: Explains how heavy artificial intelligence spending and already rich pricing can lift equities while also raising future volatility.
China surplus dynamics: Defines China Shock two point zero as surging exports and trade surpluses that pressure competitors yet export disinflation.

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