The authors examine how global agriculture, food markets, and trade are likely to evolve through 2035, arguing that productivity gains—not farmland expansion—will drive the next decade of growth. Global agricultural production is projected to rise 13% while direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions increase just 6%, though the paper also estimates a 25% chance that agricultural income per worker declines 3% because of economic and climate uncertainty.
OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026‑2035
OECD
Research
2 Pages
Key Takeaways
Productivity over expansion: Global agricultural production is projected to increase 13% by 2035, with most growth driven by higher yields and efficiency rather than new farmland.
Lower emissions intensity: Direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise just 6%, less than half the pace of projected production growth.
Income uncertainty: Global agricultural income per worker is projected to increase 9%, yet the authors estimate a 25% probability of a 3% decline.
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