Slow Turn Ahead? 2013 Investment Outlook

BlackRock

Nigel Bolton, Peter Fisher

Research

32 Pages

BlackRock examines how shifting monetary policy, slowing deleveraging, and improving global growth could reshape investment markets in 2013. It argues policy decisions may matter more than fundamentals, while suggesting ultra loose monetary conditions could eventually push investors away from traditional safe haven assets and toward risk assets.

Key Takeaways

Policy Drives Markets: Policy decisions dominate market outcomes, with the "Age of Separatism" scenario assigned a 35% probability while "Go Growth" rises to 20%.
Bond Risk Rising: A 15 basis point rise in 10 year German bund yields could erase a full year of income, highlighting growing duration risk.
Income Still Matters: High yield spreads remained near 600 basis points, while global REIT dividends were expected to grow 6% to 8% annually over the following two years.
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