The Short and Long 2026 Q1 Macro Investment View

Citi

Research

36 Pages

Kate Moore presents a discipline first playbook for early 2026, emphasizing process over prediction and dynamic portfolios over year end targets. She highlights how narrative fitting can quietly bias decisions, especially when headlines feel loudest. A provocative point is how quickly strategist forecasts can swing, making constant rotation feel rational but often unproductive.

Date published: December 2025

Source: Factset as of December 31, 2025.

Key Takeaways

Process over prediction: Focus on repeatable decision rules instead of chasing shifting market stories.
Core tilts stay steady: Maintain high conviction exposures unless fundamentals truly change.
Diversifiers with purpose: Use assets like gold to balance late cycle and policy driven risks.

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