Robeco’s Outlook 2019 explores a late-cycle global economy where solid growth coexists with rising risks that could unsettle markets. It argues markets may show “two faces” as fundamentals remain strong, yet concerns like rate hikes and protectionism build. The paper suggests investors should prepare for volatility despite continued above-trend growth.
Turbulence Ahead: Investment Outlook 2019
Robeco
Jeroen Blokland
Research
30 Pages
Key Takeaways
Two-Sided Market Outlook: Developed economies are expected to maintain above-trend growth in 2019, yet rising risks like interest rates and trade tensions could simultaneously pressure asset prices.
Late Cycle Policy Risks: US fiscal stimulus and tightening policy increase overheating risk, with unemployment near multi-decade lows and wage growth accelerating into 2019.
Emerging Market Resilience: Emerging markets are projected to outpace developed peers again in 2019, despite underperforming expectations in 2018 and ongoing trade-related headwinds.
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