(Un)Steady as She Goes

Goldman Sachs

Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Brett Nelson

Research

108 Pages

Goldman Sachs examines whether synchronized global growth can keep markets steady as tightening policy, rising valuations, and political friction build underneath the surface. The paper argues recession risks remained low entering 2018, even as complacency, equity returns, and fading labor slack increased vulnerability to shocks.

Key Takeaways

Global Growth Breadth: 186 of 192 IMF member countries posted economic growth in 2017, while emerging market equities returned 31.0% in local currency terms.
Expansion Longevity Rising: Post 1950 US economic expansions averaged 8.3 years versus 3.2 years before 1950, supporting the case for a longer cycle.
Labor Market Tightening: The US added 2.1 million jobs in 2017, while Goldman Sachs described labor conditions as potentially among the tightest in postwar history.
VIEW FULL REPORT

Join our newsletter to have all of this content + Exclusive Newsletter Bonus Content delivered to your inbox every week

Related Content

Market Outlooks
Growth Holds, Risks Widen
Oct 2026
Fixed-Income
MidYear Credit Outlook: Adoption, Financing, and Investing in the Age of AI
Aug 2026
Alternative Assets
2026 Mid-Year Update: REITs Rebound, Poised for Future Gains and Growth
Jul 2026

The information contained in this communication is of a general nature for informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. The information contained within this communication reflects the opinions of those referenced herein, and do not reflect the opinions of The Idea Farm, L.P. and its affiliates. Such opinions expressed herein are as of the date of production and are subject to change at any time without notice due to various factors, including changing market conditions or tax laws. Where data or information prepared by third parties is presented, no representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by The Idea Farm, L.P. or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, The Idea Farm, L.P. does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information and does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date. Any links to third party websites are offered only for use at your own discretion. The Idea Farm L.P., and its affiliates, are separate and unaffiliated from any third parties listed herein and are not responsible for their products, services, policies or the content of their website. All investments are subject to varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy or product referenced directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, perform equally to any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.

Scroll to Top