US Resilience Resilient

Goldman Sachs

Research

144 Pages

Goldman Sachs’ Wealth Management Investment Strategy Group (ISG) outlines why their views of US Preeminence and Staying Invested remain intact.

Date Published: January 2026

Key Takeaways

Recession Risk: Estimated 25% probability of a recession in each of the major developed economies, including the US, in 2026.
Modest Returns: Equities are expected to be the primary driver of returns, with a 7% return for US equities, a 6% return for non-US developed market equities and an 8% return for emerging market equities.
Modest Strategic Asset Allocation Shift: A moderate shift of 1.5% from non-US developed market equities to emerging market equities excluding China, driven by expectations of stronger economic and earnings growth in those emerging markets.
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