Year Ahead 2026: Escape velocity?

UBS

Research

68 Pages

UBS Chief Investment Office frames its 2026 Year Ahead outlook around whether the global economy can reach escape velocity. They see AI investment, infrastructure spending, and gradual policy easing supporting modest growth while higher debt, tariffs, and politics keep risks elevated. The outlook maps these themes into preferences across equities, bonds, alternatives, and regional positioning.

Date published: November 2025

Key Takeaways

AI and growth: AI spending, productivity gains, and new infrastructure projects provide a structural tailwind to global equity earnings.
Equities still favored: UBS leans toward global stocks, with emphasis on quality companies, select cyclicals, and beneficiaries of higher investment.
Risk aware diversification: Elevated debt, tariff uncertainty, and election risk support meaningful roles for bonds, commodities, alternatives, and active currency management.
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