Morgan Stanley explores how AI driven disruption, gold’s surprising weakness, and California’s fiscal resilience are reshaping investor thinking. The piece argues traditional safe havens may behave differently during supply shocks, while private credit stress and accelerating innovation cycles could create selective opportunities across markets.
On the Markets
Morgan Stanley
Michael Wilson
Research
20 Pages
Key Takeaways
Gold Safe Haven Shift: Gold fell 14.5% after the Middle East conflict began, underperforming the S&P 500’s 7.8% decline and challenging assumptions around crisis hedging behavior.
California Revenue Concentration: California’s top 1% of earners contribute nearly half of state income taxes, while projected fiscal deficits range from $2.9 billion to $18 billion.
Private Credit Opportunity: Apollo describes private credit as a $40 trillion asset class, with direct lending spreads widening 25 to 50 basis points amid rising redemption pressures.
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