Outlook On Emerging Markets

Lazard

Research

9 Pages

Lazard Asset Management explores the outlook for emerging markets, arguing that a synchronized global recovery, vaccine rollout, and supportive policy backdrop could drive stronger performance across equities and debt. The paper highlights a sharp rebound in EM assets and suggests cyclical sectors may benefit most, though rising rates remain a key risk.

Key Takeaways

Equity Rebound Strength: MSCI EM Index surged over 70% from 2020 lows and outperformed developed markets in Q4 with a 19.7% return versus 14.0%.
Growth Recovery Tailwinds: EM GDP growth is projected to outpace developed markets, supported by ~95% vaccine efficacy and improving global demand into 2021–2022.
Debt Market Resilience: All EM debt segments posted positive returns in 2020, with corporate bonds leading performance across the asset class.
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