Pandora’s Bog: the global energy shock of 2026

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Michael Cembalest

Research

13 Pages

Michael Cembalest summarizes our evolving analysis of the aftershocks of the invasion of Iran for investors. He covers the latest developments in commodity markets, the magnitude of the oil shock vs history, the impact of such shocks on equity markets, and more.

Key Takeaways

Oil Shock Still Bites: Sustained $120 oil for 6 months could cut annual S&P 500 EPS by $12.7, or 4% of consensus.
Gas Damage Is Meaningful: 12.8 mm tonnes of Qatari LNG capacity could be lost for 3 to 5 years, equal to 17% of output.
Defense Burn Rates Matter: The US may have used 319 Tomahawks in 6 days versus 190 anticipated FY 2026 deliveries.
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