J.P. Morgan Asset Management examines whether the increasingly popular “Sell America” thesis is supported by the evidence as the U.S. approaches its 250th anniversary. The paper reviews the country’s position across reserve currencies, capital markets, AI, productivity, energy, and geopolitics, arguing that many expectations of U.S. decline remain difficult to reconcile with current data. It also highlights several risks, including weakening institutions and reduced support for scientific research.
Semiquincententacles
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Michael Cembalest
Research
44 Pages
Key Takeaways
Dollar Strength: The dollar still accounts for 57% of global FX reserves and 89% of foreign exchange transaction volume.
AI Leadership: Just 42 AI related companies generated 66% of S&P 500 earnings growth and 71% of capex growth since 2022.
Narrow Leadership: AI related stocks returned 195% since late 2022 versus 26% for the rest of the S&P 500.