The Global Investment Outlook

RBC GAM

Sarah Riopelle, Daniel Chornous

Research

78 Pages

RBC Global Asset Management examines how Trump’s election, moderating inflation, and slower rate cuts could reshape markets in 2025. The outlook argues recession odds have fallen, assigns a 75% probability to a U.S. soft landing, and warns equity valuations may leave investors vulnerable to disappointment.

Key Takeaways

Soft Landing Odds: RBC assigns a 75% probability to a U.S. soft landing and raised its 2025 U.S. GDP forecast to 2.3% from 1.7%.
Rate Cut Reset: The Fed is expected to lower rates toward 3.50%-3.75% by late 2025, above the 2.8% endpoint futures markets previously priced.
Valuation Risks Rising: AI-linked megacap stocks trade near 30 times forward earnings while consensus forecasts project almost 13% S&P 500 profit growth during 2025.
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