The Road Ahead: Riddles in the Dark

Man Group

Teun Draaisma, Henry Neville

Research

7 Pages

Man Institute uses long market history to frame what 2022 may rhyme with, focusing on 60 40 drawdowns, bear market rallies, and recession indicators. It argues the first half drawdown felt extreme, yet history suggests rebounds after ugly starts are common. The note also builds a recession risk dashboard that points to rising odds as leading indicators weaken.

Date published: July 20, 2022

Key Takeaways

Second half rebounds: History suggests strong rebounds often follow very weak first halves.
Bear rally risk: Sharp rallies inside bear markets can create false confidence before the next leg down.
Recession signals: A multi indicator framework flags rising recession risk as the yield curve and activity measures deteriorate.
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