Thinking Strategically about Emerging Markets

UBS

Jorge Mariscal

Research

30 Pages

UBS examines how emerging markets have evolved over the past 20 years across economic, social, and financial dimensions, and what that means for investors today. It challenges the outdated view of EM as purely high growth, highlighting improving quality and shifting return drivers despite periodic volatility.

Key Takeaways

Structural Growth Evolution: EM share of global GDP rose from 23% in 1998 to over 40% by 2018, reflecting a major shift in global economic power.
Improved Market Quality: Inflation across EM declined from over 10% in the 1990s to around 4% by 2018, signaling stronger macro stability and policy credibility.
Equity Market Expansion: EM equity market capitalization increased nearly 10x since 1998, now representing roughly 12% of global equity markets, up from just 1%.
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