What if history rhymes? Equity return scenarios for the next five years

Robeco

Pim van Vliet

Research

9 Pages

This piece evaluates how elevated CAPE ratios may shape equity returns over the next five years. By modeling three CAPE scenarios (20, 30, 40), it highlights differentiated return outcomes between broad equity and defensive equity strategies.

Key Takeaways

CAPE drives returns: Elevated CAPE ratios have been a key source of market gains, but future returns vary significantly by starting valuation
Scenarios illustrate divergence: With CAPE at 34 today, five-year returns range from ~1% in a reversion scenario to >10% if ratios rise further
Defensive equity cushion: Defensive strategies show lower sensitivity to valuation shifts and hold up better in reversion or neutral scenarios
VIEW FULL REPORT

Join our newsletter to have all of this content + Exclusive Newsletter Bonus Content delivered to your inbox every week

Related Content

Markets
Global Market Intelligence: April Update
Apr 2026
China
A Tale of Two Countries: The Real Estate Crises in 1990s Japan and Contemporary China
Apr 2026
Markets
Small Cap Quality Strategy: 10 Takeaways from the Past Three Years
Apr 2026

The information contained in this communication is of a general nature for informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. The information contained within this communication reflects the opinions of those referenced herein, and do not reflect the opinions of The Idea Farm, L.P. and its affiliates. Such opinions expressed herein are as of the date of production and are subject to change at any time without notice due to various factors, including changing market conditions or tax laws. Where data or information prepared by third parties is presented, no representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by The Idea Farm, L.P. or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, The Idea Farm, L.P. does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information and does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date. Any links to third party websites are offered only for use at your own discretion. The Idea Farm L.P., and its affiliates, are separate and unaffiliated from any third parties listed herein and are not responsible for their products, services, policies or the content of their website. All investments are subject to varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy or product referenced directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, perform equally to any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.

Scroll to Top