What is the Market Thinking?

Gavekal

Louis-Vincent Gave

Research

7 Pages

Evergreen Gavekal explores why equities are rallying despite rising oil prices and geopolitical stress, suggesting markets may be looking past near term risks. The S&P 500 rose 11% in 12 days, a move in the 99th percentile, even as energy shocks and supply disruptions intensified.

Key Takeaways

Rally Extremely Strong: The S&P 500 gained 11% in 12 days, ranking in the 99th percentile of similar moves.
AI Leading Markets: Semiconductor stocks rose about 25% since late March and now represent roughly 16% of the S&P 500.
Oil Shock Absorbed: WTI crude increased about $25 per barrel, yet equities still moved higher, signaling resilience to energy shocks.
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