What Q1’s emerging themes mean for 2026 and beyond

Deutsche Bank

Luke Templeman, Galina Pozdnyakova

Research

36 Pages

Deutsche Bank Research Institute maps the themes that drove markets in Q1 2026 and what they could mean for 2026 and beyond. It sees the near term as more fragile, but the medium term as more constructive as AI and broader fundamentals offset some of the shock.

Key Takeaways

Near Term Looks Fragile: The 1 year theme score was -9 for GDP and -9 for the S&P 500, with inflation at -6 as conflict and stagflation fears dominated.
Medium Term Improves: Three years ahead, the score shifts to +3 for the S&P 500 and +1 for rates and inflation, pointing to a more constructive backdrop.
Oil Still Matters: Recessions often coincide with sharp oil spikes, yet historical geopolitical episodes still show a 9.8% median 12 month S&P 500 return after events begin.
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