What Will 2025 Be Remembered For?

Gavekal

Louis-Vincent Gave

Research

11 Pages

Louis-Vincent Gave of Evergreen GaveKal reflects on landmark events like China’s entry to the WTO and U.S. shale revolution, then proposes that 2025 may ultimately be defined by the U.S. “folding its security umbrella,” signaling a strategic retreat from global policing. This retreat appears to be reshaping defense priorities, commodity pricing, and the appeal of Latin American assets.

Key Takeaways

U.S. withdraws global security: Speeches by U.S. leaders signal a pullback from policing beyond the Americas, prompting strategic reevaluation.
Latin American upside: As U.S. focuses on the Western Hemisphere, Latin American bonds and equities have led global markets in 2025.
Commodity and defense divergence: Without a U.S. security guarantee, commodity prices are fragmenting and non-U.S. defense stocks are rallying.
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