Do You Really Want to Be a Billionaire?

Elm Wealth

Victor Haghani

Research

5 Pages

Elm Wealth examines whether maximizing the odds of becoming a billionaire is actually a sensible investment objective. In a 50-flip, 60/40 coin model, the optimal strategy offers a 7% chance of reaching $1 billion—but a 93% chance of going broke—highlighting the cost of target-driven risk taking.

Key Takeaways

Billionaire odds mislead: A 60/40 coin strategy optimized for billionaire odds gives a 7% success rate but sends the other 93% of outcomes to zero.
Risk becomes extreme: The optimal strategy starts by risking about 65% of wealth and averages 68%, often escalating to 100% on a single flip.
Sensible bets differ: Betting a constant 10%-20% delivers roughly 1.7x certainty-equivalent wealth, while Kelly’s 20% strategy gives only a 0.007% billionaire probability.
VIEW FULL REPORT

Join our newsletter to have all of this content + Exclusive Newsletter Bonus Content delivered to your inbox every week

Related Content

Asset Management
Asset Management 2026: Plenty for the Few?
Oct 2026
Wealth Management
Allianz Global Wealth Report 2026
Oct 2026
Mutual Funds and ETFs
The State of US ETFs 2026
Sep 2026

The information contained in this communication is of a general nature for informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. The information contained within this communication reflects the opinions of those referenced herein, and do not reflect the opinions of The Idea Farm, L.P. and its affiliates. Such opinions expressed herein are as of the date of production and are subject to change at any time without notice due to various factors, including changing market conditions or tax laws. Where data or information prepared by third parties is presented, no representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by The Idea Farm, L.P. or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, The Idea Farm, L.P. does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information and does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date. Any links to third party websites are offered only for use at your own discretion. The Idea Farm L.P., and its affiliates, are separate and unaffiliated from any third parties listed herein and are not responsible for their products, services, policies or the content of their website. All investments are subject to varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy or product referenced directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, perform equally to any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.

Scroll to Top