Citi Research examines how the ETF industry is shifting from broad passive adoption toward a more active and differentiated phase. It sees U.S. ETF assets reaching $25 trillion by 2030, with flows, not market returns, doing most of the long run work.
Sizing the ETF Opportunity: Active ETFs Move to Center Stage
Citi
Research
7 Pages
Key Takeaways
Flows Drive Outcomes: U.S. ETF AUM has grown at a 20% annualized pace historically, with roughly 60% of that growth coming from flows rather than returns.
Base Case Expands Sharply: Citi’s base case sees U.S. ETF assets rising to $25 trillion in 2030 and $42 trillion in 2035 as the industry matures.
Active Moves Center Stage: Citi sees active ETFs as central to the next phase, especially in underserved asset classes, with base case returns assumed at 6% annually.
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