Stephen Marin, the new Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, and the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” are being mentioned more frequently as of late. This paper was written by Marin in November 2024 and hints at what policy ideas could be implemented by the Trump administration.
A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System
Hudson Bay Capital
Stephen Miran
Research
41 Pages
Key Takeaways
Persistent Dollar Overvaluation: The U.S. dollar's status as the world's reserve currency leads to its chronic overvaluation, making American exports less competitive and contributing to trade imbalances.
Tariffs as Strategic Tools: Implementing tariffs, especially when offset by currency adjustments, can raise government revenue with minimal inflationary impact. Historical precedents, such as the 2018–2019 tariffs, suggest that targeted tariffs can be effective without significant economic disruption.
Currency Policy Adjustments: Both multilateral and unilateral strategies are available to address currency misalignments. These include coordinated agreements akin to a proposed "Mar-a-Lago Accord" to realign currency values and support U.S. manufacturing.
Global Economic Reconfiguration: The proposed strategies aim to redistribute the financial burdens of global reserve provision, encouraging other nations to share the responsibilities currently shouldered by the U.S.
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