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Global Macroeconomics
Firm
Type
Global Macroeconomics
February 2026
Productivity Stagnation in the Construction Industry: An International Perspective
Goldman Sachs
Research
20 Pages
Goldman Sachs explains why US construction has become a rare sector where productivity has declined over time, unlike the broader economy.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2026
2025’s Implications for the Future: “Some Like it Hot”?
Research Affiliates
Research
28 Pages
Jim Masturzo says markets in a high temperature regime show unpredictable correlations and return patterns compared with stable low volatility environments.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2026
The Macro Implications of the AI Capex Boom
Bridgewater
Research
12 Pages
Bridgewater explains why the current surge in AI-related capital expenditure is a much bigger macroeconomic force than consensus expects.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2026
Demand Shocks as Technology Shocks
Research
47 Pages
The authors propose a macro framework where demand can look like productivity because stronger demand induces more market search and matching.
Currency
January 2026
2026 Global FX Outlook: Different Dollar Downside
Goldman Sachs
Research
46 Pages
Goldman Sachs outlines why the US dollar may drift lower in 2026 as global growth and returns become more balanced.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2026
2025
Research
8 Pages
Ray Dalio looks back at 2025, noting, “While most people see US stocks and particularly US AI stocks to be the best investments and hence the biggest investment story of 2025, it is indisputably true that the biggest returns came from 1) what happened to the value of money and 2) US stocks significantly underperforming both non-US stock markets and gold.”
Global Macroeconomics
January 2026
National Security Strategy of the United States of America
The White House
Research
33 Pages
The Trump Administration published their 2025 National Security Strategy.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2026
Ten things about Venezuela: on oil, geopolitics and drugs
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Research
9 Pages
Michael Cembalest argues Venezuela is not currently central to global oil supply, so even dramatic geopolitics might have limited direct oil impact.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2026
Financialization: How Deficits Inflate Profits and Equity Valuations
Research Affiliates
Research
10 Pages
Research Affiliates argues persistent fiscal deficits can flow almost one for one into corporate profits, then get capitalized into equity prices through passive, price insensitive demand.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2026
AI economic scenarios: Revolutionary growth, or recessionary bubble?
Schroders
Research
8 Pages
Schroders frames AI as a fork in the road for macro and markets: either productivity compounds fast, or a hype cycle breaks and drags sentiment and spending down.
China
January 2026
US Exceptionalism Versus Chinese Uninvestibility (Part I)
Gavekal
Research
16 Pages
Louis-Vincent Gave contrasts United States equity strength with the idea that China has become uninvestible as policy choices diverged, arguing that China has deliberately redirected savings into domestic supply chains and resilience, accepting weaker market returns as the price.
Economics
December 2025
Work from Home and AI Trends
Research
26 Pages
Stanford's Nick Bloom shared an update on work from home and AI trends.
Market Outlooks
December 2025
Macro Outlook 2026: Sturdy Growth, Stagnant Jobs, Stable Prices
Goldman Sachs
Research
24 Pages
Goldman Sachs sets out a 2026 macro outlook featuring stronger than consensus global growth with subdued job creation and moderating inflation.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2025
An Update to the Demographic Outlook, 2025 to 2055
Congressional Budget Office
Research
15 Pages
CBO projects that the U.S. population will increase from 350 million people in 2025 to 367 million people in 2055.
AI
December 2025
How Much Does AI Rhyme with shAle?
Carlyle
Research
9 Pages
Carlyle compares the current artificial intelligence compute boom with the shale energy investment cycle to ask how much history rhymes.
AI
December 2025
Google’s Gemini 3 Means AI’s “Resource Grab” Phase Is On
Bridgewater
Research
9 Pages
Bridgewater Associates uses Google Gemini 3 as evidence that artificial intelligence has entered a resource grab phase driven by compute, chips and power.
Miscellaneous
December 2025
Investors Pick Their Favorite Reads
We asked all of the guests from The Meb Faber Show: What books did you read this year that you’d […]
Annual Report
December 2025
Insights from the 2025 Schwab RIA Benchmarking Study
Charles Schwab
Research
54 Pages
The RIA Benchmarking Study provides information on topics such as asset and revenue growth, sources of new clients, products and pricing, staffing, compensation, marketing, technology, and financial performance.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2025
Capital Gains Taxes and the Misallocation of Housing
Moody’s
Research
15 Pages
Moody’s Analytics analyzes how static capital gains exclusions trap older homeowners in oversized houses, clogging housing mobility and limiting supply for growing families.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2025
A Payroll Playbook to Gauge Recession Risk
Hussman Funds
Research
18 Pages
Bill Hester lays out a payroll based framework for reading recession risks from upcoming jobs reports.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2025
The Big Dangers of Big Bubbles with Big Wealth Gaps
Research
23 Pages
Ray Dalio explains how bubbles form when financial wealth grows far faster than actual money, then burst when investors must sell to raise cash.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2025
A practitioner՚s guide to forecasting in unprecedented times
Deutsche Bank
Research
64 Pages
Deutsche Bank Research Institute reviews macro forecasting through the lens of the Covid period and its aftermath. The authors walk through successive phases from collapse to recovery to inflation shock, asking why traditional models struggled when history offered few guides.
Argentina
November 2025
Argentina, 1500-2023: An Institutional Story
AIER
Research
21 Pages
American Institute for Economic Research traces Argentina's institutional journey from colonial roots to today's turbulent reform moment.
Fiscal Policy
November 2025
What Is a Tariff Shock? Insights from 150 years of Tariff Policy
Federal Reserve Bank
Research
25 Pages
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco economists study tariff shocks over 150 years to estimate their macroeconomic effects.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2025
Thoughts From the Road: Europe
KKR
Research
13 Pages
Henry McVey describes a cautious yet constructive view on Europe, where attractive valuations and underowned markets support risk assets into 2026.
Energy
November 2025
The Energy Trade-Off
Gavekal
Research
6 Pages
Louis-Vincent Gave examines the trade offs between securing affordable, reliable energy and accelerating decarbonization.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2025
50 Years of the Bridgewater Daily Observations
Bridgewater
Research
13 Pages
Bridgewater shared 13 of their 50 best Daily Observations, ranging from 1976 to 2024.
Economics
November 2025
Jobless Growth
Goldman Sachs
Research
15 Pages
Jan Haitzus’ team looks at the state of the labor market and considers the potential macro, monetary policy, and market implications of rapid technological progress.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2025
Understanding Gold
Research
44 Pages
Gold’s reputation as a safe haven is tested against data on inflation hedging, diversification, and crisis protection.
Geopolitics
October 2025
Geopolitical flashpoints: What markets may be underestimating
Deutsche Bank
Research
16 Pages
Deutsche Bank Research Institute examines why markets may be complacent toward escalating geopolitical risks and how fear can trigger sharp risk off episodes.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2025
Macro State of Play
KKR
Research
11 Pages
KKR’s Global Macro team, led by Henry McVey, outlines how a new “Regime Change” in markets is reshaping asset allocation and global investment opportunities.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2025
Dollar Dominance and Dollar Depreciation — Moving on Different Tracks (Trivedi/Jenkins)
Goldman Sachs
Research
16 Pages
Goldman Sachs examines the resilience of the U.S. dollar’s dominance in global finance alongside a forecast for continued currency depreciation.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2025
Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs
Research
36 Pages
Harvard Business School Pricing Lab measures how newly imposed U.S. tariffs feed into retail prices using daily product data linked to HS codes and country of origin.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2025
The Rising Tide of Government Interest Costs (Cole)
Goldman Sachs
Research
10 Pages
Goldman Sachs explains why G10 government interest costs are still climbing even as policy rates peak: large debt stocks are being refinanced at higher rates while deficits remain wide.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2025
Convictions And Concerns
Gavekal
Research
10 Pages
Evergreen Gavekal’s Louis-Vincent Gave reviews major 2025 market trends through the lenses of fundamentals, valuations, momentum, positioning, and policy. He outlines three main convictions: a U.S. dollar bear market, a Chinese equity bull market, and financials’ continued strength amid reflationary policies.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2025
Through the Looking Glass
Carlyle
Research
23 Pages
Carlyle examines how the global economy is entering a “post-normal” phase characterized by higher equilibrium interest rates, shifting capital flows, and uneven productivity gains from AI.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2025
Thoughts From the Road: Southeast Asia
KKR
Research
9 Pages
KKR reflects on recent meetings in Southeast Asia, highlighting strong 2025 equity performance, capital inflows, and demographic tailwinds.
Global Macroeconomics
August 2025
The New Joule Order
Carlyle
Research
27 Pages
Jeff Currie posits that energy security, rather than climate concerns, is now the primary driver of the global energy transition.
Global Macroeconomics
August 2025
What Not to Watch: Data Reliability and Market Sensitivity to Economic Surprises (Walker)
Goldman Sachs
Research
15 Pages
Goldman Sachs explores a world of rising macro uncertainty, where traditional economic relationships are weakening and policy ambiguity has surged.
Global Macroeconomics
August 2025
Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence
Stanford University
Research
57 Pages
Stanford researchers use payroll data from ADP to analyze how generative AI adoption is reshaping employment across occupations.
Global Macroeconomics
August 2025
The unstoppable dollar meets the immovable Mr Trump
Ninety One
Research
23 Pages
Ninety One assesses whether structural shifts—including rising twin deficits, fiscal unpredictability, global geopolitical rebalancing, and eroding U.S. rate advantages—could finally reverse a decades-long U.S. dollar up‑cycle.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2025
What Would It Take to Bring Back US Manufacturing? Part 2
Bridgewater
Research
9 Pages
Bridgewater and Eclipse identify the technologies needed to close the U.S. productivity gap and restore competitiveness in manufacturing.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2025
What Would It Take to Bring Back US Manufacturing? Part 1
Bridgewater
Research
11 Pages
Bridgewater and Eclipse analyze the deep structural obstacles facing U.S. manufacturing amid renewed efforts to reshore production.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2025
Immigration Policy and Its Macroeconomic Effects in the Second Trump Administration
American Enterprise Institute
Research
13 Pages
AEI’s report assesses how immigration policy under a potential second Trump term could affect U.S. macroeconomic conditions.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2025
What to watch: A fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, paying for and quarterly country and sector risk update
Allianz
Research
12 Pages
The authors assess market and macro implications of a fragile Middle East ceasefire, Europe’s rising defense bills, and shifting country and sector risks.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2025
Mapping the World’s Prices – 2025
Deutsche Bank
Research
58 Pages
Deutsche Bank has a fun look at the world’s cheapest and most expensive cities, covering the quality of life, rental costs and prices for phones, coffee, taxis and more in 69 cities.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2025
The US Dollar and Why International Stocks are Outperforming YTD
Johnson Financial Group
Research
7 Pages
Johnson Financial Group explains that the US dollar’s sharp depreciation in 2025 has significantly boosted the relative performance of foreign equities for US investors, as currency effects can outweigh underlying stock movement.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2025
US fiscal worries: Is this time different?
Goldman Sachs
Research
28 Pages
Goldman Sachs’ covers the US fiscal deficit issue from a variety of angles. This includes interviews with Ray Dalio, Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff, and historian Sir Niall Ferguson and have other commentary around this issue for Europe, Asia and Emerging Markets.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2025
Signal over noise #10: The fiscal tightrope
UBS
Research
7 Pages
Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi explains why she believes the US debt burden remains manageable and that growth is the best option for the US to reduce the deficit over time.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2025
The New Martial Plan
Carlyle
Research
28 Pages
As the United States retreats from international cooperation, the world is arguably becoming more dangerous and more expensive. Jeff Currie’s latest looks at the implications of this shifting security landscape.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2025
The Path to 2075 – The Positive Story of Global Aging
Goldman Sachs
Research
21 Pages
Goldman Sachs reframes global aging as an opportunity rather than a crisis, noting that longevity gains and healthier aging are extending effective working lives.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2025
The power of one: How standout firms grow national productivity
McKinsey & Company
Research
94 Pages
McKinsey finds a small number of firms contribute the majority of productivity growth in a country.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2025
The Art of Learning
KKR
Research
26 Pages
KKR shares how recent events surrounding trade, geopolitics, and monetary policy have amplified their Regime Change thesis.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2025
Tariffs and the US Trade Deficit, Where Are We Headed?
Deutsche Bank
Research
26 Pages
After appreciating about 40% from the end of the GFC (2011), the dollar reversed course earlier this year and is now down more than 5% from its peak this January.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2025
The growing role of private credit and the outlook for corporate finance
Apollo
Research
36 Pages
Torsten Slok examines the expanding role of private credit in corporate finance, noting that its share of the U.S. debt market has grown from 1.7% in 2003 to 6.6% in 2023.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2025
The Path to 2075 — The Positive Story of Global Aging
Goldman Sachs
Research
21 Pages
Goldman Sachs’ Global Economics Analyst report, The Path to 2075 — The Positive Story of Global Aging, challenges the conventional view of aging populations as an economic burden.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2025
Signs of the Times: Five Indicators of Regime Change
Man Group
Research
19 Pages
While various economic indicators can signal regime change, market pricing measures can offer clearer timing cues. Henry Neville shares five quantitative signs that secular stagnation is over.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2025
Is the worst of both worlds returning? Understanding stagflation risk – a stagflation primer
Meketa
Research
15 Pages
Meketa Investment Group explores the rare but consequential risk of stagflation—a simultaneous rise in inflation and stagnating growth—highlighting its historical rarity and costly market implications.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2025
Stimulus Does Not Stimulate
Research Affiliates
Research
11 Pages
Rob Arnott challenges the prevailing belief that government stimulus spending and debt issuance reliably boost economic growth.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2025
The Impact of Uncertainty on Investment, Hiring, and Consumer Spending
Goldman Sachs
Research
17 Pages
Goldman Sachs Research analyzes the impact of heightened policy uncertainty on U.S. business investment, hiring, and consumer spending.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2025
AI Beneficiaries: Investing in Second-Order Effects
Morgan Stanley
Research
18 Pages
Morgan Stanley covers the second-order effects of AI & automation, noting that while big technological innovations create huge investment opportunities, it’s often the companies that leverage the technology, rather than the suppliers that create the most enduring value for investors.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2025
What’s Driving the Surge in U.S. Corporate Profits?
Federal Reserve Bank
Research
7 Pages
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis reports that U.S. corporate profits have reached near-record highs since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, both in nominal terms and as a share of national income.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2025
Investing Amid Trade Wars
Sparkline Capital
Research
14 Pages
Kai Wu measures firms’ global trade exposure based on their reliance on foreign revenues, supply chains, and employees.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2025
Rising Toxicity and the Threat to Capitalism and Life Itself
GMO
Research
19 Pages
Jeremy Grantham warns that the unchecked spread of synthetic industrial chemicals—particularly endocrine disruptors—is a growing yet underrecognized risk to human health, biodiversity, and the future viability of modern economic systems.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2025
A practitioner՚s guide to forecasting in unprecedented times
Deutsche Bank
Research
64 Pages
Deutsche Bank Research's report examines the evolving economic landscape, focusing on macroeconomic trends, growth dynamics, and policy implications.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2025
Ferguson’s Law: Debt Service, Military Spending, and the Fiscal Limits of Power
Hoover Institution
Research
34 Pages
Historian Niall Ferguson introduces a principle suggesting that a great power is at risk of decline when its debt servicing costs surpass its defense spending.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2025
An Acceleration in the Global Flywheel
KKR
Research
27 Pages
Henry McVey, Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation, says he “can’t think of a time outside of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis when investor appetite for what is going on in the macro landscape has been this high.” This expands on his 2025 outlook by covering a variety of topics, including tariffs and U.S.-China tensions.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2025
AI, demographics, and the U.S. economy
Vanguard
Research
33 Pages
Vanguard examines the push and pull between artificial intelligence and demographic-driven deficits, exploring their impact on U.S. economic growth in the decade ahead.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2025
Dependency and depopulation: Confronting the consequences of a new demographic reality
McKinsey & Company
Research
82 Pages
McKinsey explores the implications of a new demographic reality brought on by falling fertility and increasing longevity.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2025
Sector-Adjusted Global Stock Market Valuation and Long-Term Outlook
Taunus Trust
Research
7 Pages
Taunus Trust analyzes sector-adjusted valuations across forty equity markets to estimate long-term real return prospects.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2025
It Was A Very Good Year
Charles Schwab
Research
6 Pages
Charles Schwab reviews why 2024 was a standout year for U.S. equities while cautioning that frothy sentiment and narrow leadership add risk.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2025
The 2020-2025 Sovereign Debt Crisis: What have we learnt and what lies ahead?
Lazard
Research
6 Pages
Lazard's Sovereign Advisory team, which has served as the sole financial advisor to most countries facing debt distress since 2020, shares what they’ve learned from helping countries navigate the shocks of COVID-19, the Russia/Ukraine war and global monetary tightening.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2025
The Inauguration: the flurry of Trump 2.0 executive orders
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Research
10 Pages
J.P. Morgan’s January 2025 “Eye on the Market” update examines the early impacts of the Trump administration’s second-term executive orders.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2025
Dependency and depopulation? Confronting the consequences of a new demographic reality
McKinsey & Company
Research
82 Pages
McKinsey Global Institute’s report highlights the profound demographic shifts reshaping the world.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2025
Did the U.S. Really Grow Out of Its World War II Debt?
IMF
Research
55 Pages
Last year, the IMF released a paper that analyzed the role of three factors to the U.S. public debt/GDP ratio from 106% in 1946 to 23% in 1974: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged interest rates before the Fed-Treasury Accord of 1951.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2025
Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade
Boston Consulting Group
Research
16 Pages
While BCG projects that total world trade in goods will grow at an average of 2.9% annually for the next ten years, they believe routes goods travel will change markedly. This report explains how.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2024
We Are Headed Towards a System of National Capitalism
The Market
Research
15 Pages
Russell Napier argues that the global financial system, established in 1994, is undergoing a fundamental transformation.
Markets
December 2024
10 for 10: Themes for the Next Decade
Man Group
Research
9 Pages
Man Group presents ten secular investment themes expected to shape markets over the coming decade, grounded in geopolitical shifts, structural economic changes, and technological disruption.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2024
A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System
Hudson Bay Capital
Research
41 Pages
Stephen Marin, the new Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, and the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” are being mentioned more frequently as of late.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2024
Investing Around the Election and the Government Debt Problem
BlackRock
Research
10 Pages
Rick Rieder explores how U.S. economic resilience and rising government debt shape investment opportunities during and after the election cycle.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2024
Prejudice And China
Gavekal
Research
10 Pages
Louis-Vincent Gave highlights how Western leaders missed China’s leap in industrial growth due to travel restrictions, media bias, and cultural prejudice.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2024
An Update from Our CIOs: Navigating the Limits
Bridgewater
Research
4 Pages
Bridgewater's CIOs say the macro environment is being shaped by how highly proactive policy makers navigate around economic and market limits.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2024
Thoughts on Stocks for the 2024 Election
The Prudent Speculator
Research
13 Pages
The report advises investors to maintain a steady, long-term approach to investing, unaffected by the 2024 election’s political climate, while selectively highlighting potential stock opportunities influenced by either a Harris or Trump administration.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2024
Is an AI Bubble Ahead of Us or Behind Us?
Bridgewater
Research
13 Pages
Greg Jensen suggests that the combination of breakthrough AI advancements and a ripe macroeconomic environment indicates the AI bubble may still be forming, rather than behind us.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2024
Change Required: Immigration Reform is an Economic Necessity
Research Affiliates
Research
8 Pages
Research Affiliates explains why immigration reform is necessary for the future success of the U.S. economy, noting that immigration of skilled workers in short supply boosts growth of the labor force and enhances productivity.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2024
Marriage Market Sorting in the U.S.
Federal Reserve Bank
Research
51 Pages
The Fed examined the shifts in the U.S. marriage market, assessing how online dating, demographic changes, and evolving societal norms influence mate choice and broader sorting trends.
Markets
August 2024
Mind the Gap 2024
Morningstar
Research
20 Pages
This report examines how investor behavior—specifically, the timing of purchases and redemptions—creates a persistent gap between fund returns and investor returns.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2024
The CEO Macro Briefing Book
UBS
Research
79 Pages
UBS offers an update on their “Roaring 20’s” thesis for the US economy, covering the cooling macro environment, the recent rotation in stocks, dealmaking activity in the second quarter, and an updated election outlook.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2024
The roar is getting a little louder: Assessing the “Roaring ‘20s” outlook for the US economy
UBS
Research
47 Pages
This report assesses whether the U.S. economy is entering a new macroeconomic regime similar to the 1990s “Roaring 20s.”
Markets
May 2024
Improving investing outcomes by minimizing investor bias
Vanguard
Research
5 Pages
Vanguard explores how cognitive biases can impede investment decision-making and offers strategies to mitigate their impact.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2024
Generally Faster: The Economic Impact of Generative AI
Research
30 Pages
Andrew McAfee partners with Google to write about the benefits & challenges of AI on the economy.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2024
Exploring the Implications of Sub-Saharan Africa’s Demographic Explosion
Bridgewater
Research
9 Pages
This paper explores how sub-Saharan Africa’s rapidly expanding working-age population may shape the global economy over coming decades.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2024
Macro Pulse
New York Life Investments
Research
63 Pages
New York Life Investments shares their global economic, geopolitical and asset allocation views, noting they believe the next 3 months mark a major inflection point for global asset allocation.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2024
GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models
Research
43 Pages
In Meb’s episode with Rick Rieder, Rick mentioned this was the most impactful paper he read last year. It investigates the potential implications of large language models (LLMs) on the U.S. labor market.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2023
From Abundance to Austerity: Why the Next Decade Won’t Be Like the Last
Research Affiliates
Research
9 Pages
Research Affiliates argues that investors are moving from an era of abundant liquidity to one defined by austerity and higher real returns.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2023
The Evolution of Work From Home
Research
28 Pages
The authors examine how work from home has evolved from a marginal practice to a central feature of modern labor markets.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2023
Certainly Uncertain
AQR
Research
11 Pages
AQR Capital Management examines how unusually high macroeconomic uncertainty is today and whether it is likely to fade or persist.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2023
Still Keeping It Simple Mid-Year Update 2023
KKR
Research
68 Pages
KKR Global Macro and Asset Allocation lays out a constructive mid year outlook built around its Keep It Simple framework.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2023
Volume II – Real Assets Market Overview
Clocktower Group
Research
23 Pages
Clocktower Group examines how markets have processed the war in Ukraine and what the Wagner mutiny reveals about Russia.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2023
Volume 1 – Powell and Xi Learn All About Constraints
Clocktower Group
Research
18 Pages
Clocktower Group explores how material constraints shape policy choices for Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2023
Odds of a Hard Landing Are Increasing
Research Affiliates
Research
6 Pages
Research Affiliates evaluates how Federal Reserve tightening and an inverted yield curve are raising the odds of a hard landing.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2023
The Curious Incident of the Elevated Profit Margins
GMO
Research
10 Pages
GMO investigates why United States corporate profit margins have stayed unusually elevated for more than a decade.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2023
Certainly Uncertain
AQR
Research
11 Pages
AQR Capital Management examines how volatile macro conditions translate into uncertainty and what that means for asset allocation.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2023
An Update from Our CIOs: The Tightening Cycle Is Beginning to Bite
Bridgewater
Research
17 Pages
Bridgewater Associates explains how last year’s rapid tightening is now meaningfully constricting money, credit, and economic activity.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2023
Regime Change: The Role of Private Equity in the ‘Traditional’ Portfolio
KKR
Research
22 Pages
KKR Global Institute examines how private equity can reshape traditional portfolios in a new macro regime where stocks and bonds move together.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2022
Bulls, Burst Bubbles And Bear Markets
Gavekal
Research
2 Pages
Gavekal argues bear markets serve a purpose: they break crowded narratives and rotate market leadership.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2022
The Path to a Pivot
3Fourteen Research
Research
13 Pages
3Fourteen Research lays out what would need to happen for the Fed to pause, and why bear market rallies can be seductive traps.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2022
History Lessons: How “Transitory” Is Inflation?
Research Affiliates
Research
9 Pages
Research Affiliates challenges the idea that inflation reliably cools on a quick schedule once it spikes.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2022
Risk Off, Yield On
PIMCO
Research
6 Pages
PIMCO makes the case that higher yields have changed the playbook, bringing bonds back as a serious portfolio option.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2022
The Times They Are A-Changin’
KKR
Research
30 Pages
KKR surveys endowment and foundation chief investment officers on how they are reshaping portfolios for a regime of higher inflation and tighter liquidity.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2022
The Fed Has to Keep Tightening Until Things Get Worse
Bridgewater
Research
6 Pages
Bridgewater Associates argues the Fed is boxed in by high inflation and an unusually tight labor market, so it keeps tightening until growth and markets crack.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2022
35-Year Highs for the Dollar
GMO
Research
10 Pages
GMO explains why an overvalued U.S. dollar can quietly drag on U.S. equities while boosting markets with cheaper currencies.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2022
Aging, Deflation, and Secular Stagnation
Federal Reserve Bank
Research
9 Pages
The Atlanta Fed’s Policy Hub digs into the effects of rapid population aging on inflation, real interest rates, and GDP growth, which may be causing deflationary pressures and secular stagnation.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2022
Europe’s Stagflation is Different in Kind and Much Harder to Remedy
Bridgewater
Research
12 Pages
Bridgewater Associates argues Europe’s energy supply shock is creating stagflation that is tougher to fix than a standard demand slowdown
Global Macroeconomics
August 2022
Insights into the Inflation Print
Research Affiliates
Research
10 Pages
Research Affiliates unpacks why a better looking monthly inflation number can hide stickier underlying pressures.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2022
Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy
Research
118 Pages
This paper argues business withdrawals and sanctions are delivering a deeper hit to Russia than headline data imply.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2022
Building a Beta Portfolio in an Environment That Looks Difficult for Assets
Bridgewater
Research
17 Pages
Bridgewater Associates explains how to hold beta when inflation and Fed tightening create headwinds across most assets.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2022
Wealth Preservation
Totem Macro
Research
13 Pages
Totem Macro argues markets are moving into a new regime shaped by tighter liquidity and shifting geopolitical incentives.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2022
New Business Boom and Bust: How Capitalism Experiments
Morgan Stanley
Research
12 Pages
Morgan Stanley frames industry booms and shakeouts as capitalism experimenting, then pruning what does not work, with investing outcomes skewed toward a few winners.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2022
False Narratives Will Cost You Money
Clocktower Group
Research
29 Pages
Clocktower Group challenges popular macro stories, arguing recession certainty and simple Volcker comparisons can misprice markets.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2022
An Update from Our CIOs: What Was Coming Is Now Upon Us
Bridgewater
Research
10 Pages
Bridgewater’s investment leaders explain how aggressive policy stimulus created a surge in nominal spending that has morphed into persistent inflation.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2022
State of Play: Global Macro Trends
KKR
Research
32 Pages
KKR’s global macro team outlines how the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have accelerated a regime shift toward higher inflation, more volatile growth and greater geopolitical tension.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2022
Putin’s Invasion Reminds Us That We Live in a Finite World
GMO
Research
4 Pages
GMO’s Jeremy Grantham uses the invasion of Ukraine as a lens on long running constraints in energy, metals and other natural resources.