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Global Macroeconomics
Firm
Type
Global Macroeconomics
October 2026
Diversifying U.S. Equity Exposure in a Concentrated Market
DoubleLine
Research
6 Pages
DoubleLine's Eric Dhall and Ryan Kimmel examine how concentrated the S&P 500 has become and what that means for portfolio risk.
AI
October 2026
The Macro Implications of the AI Investment Boom: US and Europe
Apollo
Research
54 Pages
Apollo's chart book examines the different roles in the AI economy across the US and Europe.
Developed Markets
October 2026
French Debt Dynamics and the Outlook for Europe
Apollo
Research
27 Pages
Apollo's chart book on France and the ECB shows French spreads over Germany at their widest since the 2011 euro crisis, with fiscal pressures building ahead of the October 13 budget debate.
Europe
October 2026
Thoughts From the Road: Europe and Asia
KKR
Research
16 Pages
Henry McVey of KKR shares takeaways from meetings in London and Singapore, concluding the global investment cycle looks broader, more durable and more inflationary than expected.
Currency
October 2026
The Currency Book
Deutsche Bank
Research
76 Pages
Combining academic, industry and Deutsche Bank expertise, The Currency Book explains the enduring principles and the developments defining FX today.
Portfolio Management
September 2026
The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk
Research
51 Pages
The authors examine why currencies with higher interest rates historically delivered higher excess returns.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2026
Sea change: the market implications of the threat to the maritime commons
Deutsche Bank
Research
18 Pages
Deutsche Bank examines the growing threat to freedom of navigation and why markets may be underpricing maritime supply shocks.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2026
Carbon Pricing’s Impact on Global Industry Is Quietly Growing
Bridgewater
Research
17 Pages
Bridgewater examines how carbon pricing has quietly grown into a force shaping corporate earnings and industrial policy worldwide.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2026
The Kids Are Alright: The Timeless Angst over Young People and Money
BCG
Research
15 Pages
BCG Chief Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak pushes back on the popular narrative that younger generations face worse economic prospects than their parents.
Economics
September 2026
The O-Ring Risk to the Global Economy
Bloomberg
Article
2 Pages
Bloomberg’s John Authers unpacks Peter Orszag’s O-Ring Economy thesis, arguing that as global supply chains grow more complex a single […]
AI
September 2026
Rules of relevance
Carlyle
Research
15 Pages
Carlyle examines how investors’ analytical frameworks can obscure risks across AI, credit, rates, and deglobalization.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2026
The Questions You Should Be Asking About the AI Bubble
BCG
Article
11 Pages
The authors argue the key AI-bubble question is not whether spending eventually corrects, but whether a correction threatens the economy.
Geopolitics
September 2026
Geopolitics and the geometry of global trade: September 2026 update
McKinsey & Company
Research
28 Pages
McKinsey Global Institute tracks how trade is being rewired across six major economies as AI demand, tariffs, and geopolitical disruptions reshape partners and products.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2026
Tax Policy Reforms 2026
OECD
Research
76 Pages
The authors examine how governments reshaped tax systems in 2025 as inflation eased but fiscal pressures intensified.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2026
The Rise of Anticapitalist Capitalism
Research
5 Pages
D.A. Wallach argues American culture has embraced extreme risk-seeking — from meme-stock gambling to the AI trade to Trump-era politics — enabling a new "Anticapitalist Capitalism," where tech founders frame profit-seeking as civilizational salvation rather than self-interest.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2026
The Home Straight….
Deutsche Bank
Research
78 Pages
Deutsche Bank's monthly chartbook argues the global bond sell-off is a continuation of normalization rather than a red flag, while previewing Fed and ECB rate debates, midterm election odds, and an AI capex boom now dwarfing the rest of the S&P 500.
Global Macroeconomics
August 2026
The Debt-Equity Distinction: A Century of Policy by Accident
Research
12 Pages
Daniel Peris argues that America’s bias toward debt financing is largely a century-old tax-policy accident rather than an economic necessity.
Economics
August 2026
What’s Behind the Declining Trend Unemployment Rate?
Federal Reserve Bank
Research
16 Pages
The authors examine why the US trend unemployment rate has declined for decades, separating demographic shifts from changes within worker groups.
AI
August 2026
This Is One of the Most Important Policy Decisions of Our Lifetime
Bridgewater
Article
5 Pages
Bridgewater CEO Nir Bar Dea and Managing CIO Greg Jensen explain how the choices we make today will help determine whether AI’s potential is broadly shared and how society navigates the economic disruption that could come with it.
Global Macroeconomics
August 2026
Global Views: They’re Not Hiking
Goldman Sachs
Research
10 Pages
Goldman Sachs argues that softer US jobs and inflation data make a 2026 Fed hike increasingly unlikely, despite nine of 18 June FOMC participants projecting hikes.
AI
August 2026
Elastic Expectations
Citadel
Research
13 Pages
Citadel Securities examines whether falling AI costs are expanding demand fast enough to support today’s lofty expectations.
Global Macroeconomics
August 2026
A Critical Time for AI
Bridgewater
Video
Bridgewater Associates frames AI as a market story where technological progress remains extraordinary but financing risk is rising.
Demographics
August 2026
The global fertility freefall: trends, drivers and uncertainties
Research
4 Pages
One of the top demographer finds “he current fertility ‘freefall’ is more widespread, deeper and more permanent than previously anticipated.”
Global Macroeconomics
August 2026
Financial Markets, Oil Prices, and Supply-Side Risks
Federal Reserve Bank
Research
2 Pages
Financial market pricing now indicates that elevated oil prices and potential inflation are prominent sources of risk.
Global Macroeconomics
August 2026
The Upsidedown
Totem Macro
Research
29 Pages
Totem Macro argues that the AI boom is being financed by shrinking liquidity, leverage, and off balance sheet structures rather than durable end demand.
AI
August 2026
AI and the Looming Competition for Margin
BCG
Research
Article
11 Pages
New technologies, like AI, deliver productivity growth by changing the ratio of inputs to outputs in one of three ways: 1) Reducing input costs (i.e. “Same with less”); 2) Growing outputs with the same inputs (i.e. “More with same”) or 3) Creating an entirely new business model.
AI & Labor Markets
August 2026
The Impact of AI on the U.S. Labor Market
Apollo
Research
29 Pages
Apollo Global Management examines the early wage and employment effects of observed AI adoption across 321 U.S. occupations.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2026
US Daily: FOMC Recap: No Hike and No Guidance
Goldman Sachs
Research
7 Pages
Goldman Sachs reviews a July FOMC meeting that ended without a rate hike or meaningful guidance despite unusually high uncertainty.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2026
Taking Stock of the New Paradigm, with Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour
Bridgewater
Video
Bridgewater Associates argues that AI and modern mercantilism are creating a durable, high-nominal-growth regime rather than a normal cyclical expansion.
Developed Markets
July 2026
Thoughts from the Road: Europe
KKR
Research
8 Pages
KKR argues that Europe’s modest growth outlook masks widening dispersion across sectors and countries.
Currency
July 2026
The dollar’s demise has been predicted for 55 years. The BCG Institute says it’s still overstated
BCG
Research
20 Pages
BCG Institute argues the dollar’s reserve-currency obituary is overstated because primacy depends less on exchange-rate moves than on relative institutional depth.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2026
The global balance sheet 2026: Imbalance and Divergence
McKinsey & Company
Research
42 Pages
The authors examine how the $1.8 quadrillion global balance sheet is diverging from the real economy.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2026
Catalyzing competitiveness: Where investment happens and why
McKinsey & Company
Research
62 Pages
McKinsey examines how productive investment reveals which economies are gaining competitiveness.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2026
Inflation and Debt
Research
96 Pages
John Cochrane explains why the 2021–2022 inflation surge is best understood through fiscal theory rather than money supply or standard rate policy alone.
AI & Labor Markets
July 2026
AI-merican Exceptionalism
Citadel
Research
14 Pages
Frank Flight examines how AI could strengthen America's entrepreneurial advantage by lowering the minimum efficient scale required to build and grow businesses.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2026
Mapping the World’s Prices – 2026
Deutsche Bank
Research
68 Pages
Deutsche Bank examines how currencies, inflation, and housing have fundamentally reshaped global prices over the past decade.
Behavioral Finance
July 2026
Once Bitten: Why Investors Won’t Buy Back a Stock That Burned Them
Essentia Analytics
Research
7 Pages
Essentia Analytics explores why investors often refuse to repurchase stocks they previously sold at a loss, even when fundamentals improve.
Demographics
July 2026
How Aging and Declining Populations Will Drive Product and Company Demand Tailwinds/Headwinds
Goldman Sachs
Research
53 Pages
The authors examine how aging populations and falling fertility rates could reshape product, industry, and company demand.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2026
Does AI Raise or Lower Neutral Rates?
PIMCO
Research
4 Pages
The authors examine whether AI is more likely to raise or lower the neutral interest rate (r*), challenging a growing consensus among central bankers.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2026
Beware a Shifting Landscape
Citadel
Research
10 Pages
Citadel Securities examines how markets are transitioning from pricing inflation risks toward pricing slower economic growth as geopolitical tensions reshape the macro outlook.
Economics
July 2026
Global Views: More Crude, Less Concern
Goldman Sachs
Research
10 Pages
Goldman Sachs explains why easing tensions between the US and Iran have improved the economic outlook despite continued uncertainty in oil markets.
Economics
July 2026
The Post‑COVID Decline in the Labor Share
Federal Reserve Bank
Article
6 Pages
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York examines why the U.S. labor share has fallen to a post-war low after COVID.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2026
Demand And Supply Of Money
Gavekal
Research
7 Pages
Evergreen Gavekal examines why changes in money demand can be just as important as changes in money supply when evaluating markets and the economy.
AI
June 2026
Artificial Intelligence and Global Security
Hoover Institution
Research
16 Pages
Niall Ferguson examines how artificial intelligence is reshaping global security through two largely unconstrained races: one among leading AI companies and another between the U.S. and China.
Alternative Assets
June 2026
A “super El Niño” Threatens Waves of Commodity-Driven Inflation Into 2027
Schroders
Article
1 Pages
Schroders examines how a potentially strong El Niño, combined with fertilizer disruptions and energy market stress, could fuel another wave of global food inflation.
AI & Labor Markets
June 2026
Predicting AI job exposure
Article
8 Pages
Benedict Evans argues that AI job exposure models may be less predictive than they look.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2026
The Divergence Conundrum
KKR
Research
89 Pages
KKR examines a global economy splitting between capital rich growth engines and capital starved sectors.
Demographics
June 2026
The Path to 2075 — Is Convergence Really Over?
Goldman Sachs
Research
15 Pages
Goldman Sachs argues economic convergence is not over when countries are weighted by population rather than treated equally.
AI & Labor Markets
June 2026
How to Guess If Your Job Will Exist in Five Years
The Atlantic
Research
5 Pages
The Atlantic argues that AI’s labor impact depends on whether a job is more like “coal” or “horse.”
Active Management
June 2026
The Myth of Consistency
Virtus Investment Partners
Research
3 Pages
Virtus Investment Partners argues that long term fund winners rarely look like winners in every short window.
AI & Labor Markets
June 2026
AI’s Labor Ambitions: Separating Myth From Reality
Apollo
Research
5 Pages
Apollo argues AI is unlikely to cause mass unemployment, but investors should not dismiss labor disruption either.
AI & Labor Markets
June 2026
Why AI will transform, not replace, your job
Capital Group
Research
7 Pages
Capital Group argues AI is more likely to reshape work than eliminate it outright.
Economics
June 2026
Global Market Views: Shortages
Goldman Sachs
Research
14 Pages
Goldman Sachs looks at how the Iran ceasefire and easing tail risk have helped markets rally despite lingering shortages in energy and AI infrastructure.
AI
May 2026
Megatrends: AI vs the decade’s structural headwinds
Deutsche Bank
Research
30 Pages
Deutsche Bank Research Institute uses a new AI powered model to assess how six megatrends may shape economies and markets.
Economics
May 2026
Global Views: Bending, Not Breaking
Goldman Sachs
Research
10 Pages
Goldman Sachs argues that the 10 week Strait of Hormuz closure has hurt global growth only moderately so far.
Geopolitics
May 2026
How defence spending will shrink global imbalances and weaken US
Deutsche Bank
Research
10 Pages
Deutsche Bank argues that rising defence spending will lower global savings, shrink current account surpluses, and reduce capital recycling into the U.S.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2026
The Long-Run Effects of Technological Disruption on Workers
Goldman Sachs
Research
16 Pages
Goldman Sachs studies four decades of worker level data to assess how technology driven job displacement affects employment, wages, wealth, and household formation.
AI & Labor Markets
May 2026
AI Will Reshape More Jobs Than It Replaces
BCG
Research
22 Pages
BCG examines how AI may reshape work without turning every automatable task into job loss.
AI & Labor Markets
May 2026
P(doom), p(bling), and the fear of “technological unemployment”
BCG
Research
6 Pages
BCG Center for Macroeconomics examines whether AI should be viewed through extremes of extinction, abundance, or mass job loss.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2026
Flash Macro Update
KKR
Research
6 Pages
KKR’s Global Macro team examines how capital markets are being reshaped by geopolitical rivalry, resource nationalism, AI driven capex, and more volatile inflation.
Commodities
May 2026
The return of history: gold, the dollar, and the monetary future
Deutsche Bank
Research
18 Pages
Deutsche Bank Research Institute examines how geopolitics may be pushing central banks back toward gold and away from the dollar.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2026
U.S. Mint Buys Drug Cartel Gold and Sells It as ‘American’
The New York Times
Article
18 Pages
As prices for the precious metal soar, the industry’s guardrails have broken down.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2026
The Path to 2075: The Positive Story of Global Aging
Goldman Sachs
Research
21 Pages
Goldman Sachs argues that global aging may be less of a demographic crisis than many assume.
Economics
May 2026
The Economics of Intelligence
Citadel
Research
18 Pages
Citadel Securities argues that AI may be less about replacing labor and more about expanding demand for compute, power, infrastructure, and skilled workers.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2026
Quantitative easing and housing inflation post-COVID
Brookings
Research
31 Pages
The Fed’s ownership of $2.7 trillion of agency MBS in 2022 was 32% of the entire $8.5 trillion MBS market. Brookings shows that whilst Fed MBS purchases between 2020 and 2022 successfully lowered mortgage rates, they simultaneously drove home prices higher by stimulating demand.
Commodities
May 2026
How Fast Can Gulf Production Recover After Reopening?
Goldman Sachs
Research
11 Pages
Goldman Sachs analyzes how quickly Gulf crude production could rebound after the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
Geopolitics
April 2026
When Geopolitics Becomes an Economic Input
PIMCO
Research
4 Pages
PIMCO explains that geopolitics is no longer a temporary market shock but a persistent force shaping economic outcomes.
Economics
April 2026
A Q&A on Our Economic Forecasts Amid the Evolving War with Iran
Goldman Sachs
Research
17 Pages
Goldman Sachs updates its US macro outlook around the Iran war and oil shock. It now sees higher inflation, slower growth, and a softer labor market, but still expects the Fed to cut twice this year rather than hike into the shock.
AI & Labor Markets
April 2026
The AI Jobs Scare Meets 250 Years of Data
American Enterprise Institute
Article
7 Pages
Why do economists generally seem more cautious than many folks in Silicon Valley about the potential economic impacts of artificial intelligence?
Global Macroeconomics
April 2026
Flash Macro Update: U.S. Markets
KKR
Research
19 Pages
KKR updates its U.S. market outlook around the Iran conflict, oil, inflation, and private credit repricing.
Fiscal Policy
April 2026
The Effects of Tariffs on the Components of Inflation
Federal Reserve Bank
Research
15 Pages
A new Fed Study suggests that the responses of the different components of inflation to tariff changes can reduce inflation by depressing demand in the short run.
Economics
April 2026
Testing Resilience
OECD
Research
28 Pages
The OECD’s latest economic outlook incorporates the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on the global economy.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2026
The Landscape of Parental Leave-Taking in the United States
Federal Reserve Bank
Research
57 Pages
This paper provides new and comprehensive evidence on parental leave in the United States and on how parents there use their time in the first months of a child’s life.
Energy
April 2026
Energy demand and supply and the Strait of Hormuz
Apollo
Research
58 Pages
Apollo Global Management examines how a Strait of Hormuz disruption could ripple through oil, gas, shipping, and inflation.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2026
Apocalypse Now?
Man Group
Research
18 Pages
Man Group studies nearly 40 conflicts since World War II to ask what war usually does to markets and how investors might hedge it.
Currency
April 2026
What Iran means for the dollar: a perfect storm for the petrodollar
Deutsche Bank
Research
9 Pages
The more interesting and lasting impact of this crisis on the dollar could be on the long-term foundations, namely the willingness of the world to price traded goods and services in dollars and to save resulting surpluses in dollar assets.
Currency
April 2026
The Brilliant World of FX – A Primer
Deutsche Bank
Research
23 Pages
Deutsche Bank discusses "restricted markets," defined as emerging markets with current or capital account restrictions, or both. They examine their market structure and trading challenges.
Commodities
March 2026
What’s the best way to think about oil & gas shocks by country during the Iran war?
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Article
3 Pages
Michael Cembalest says when we think about the oil & gas shock affecting different countries, we focus on total oil consumption (irrespective of domestic oil production since oil is a global market) and imported gas (since domestic production is typically shielded from price shocks).
Geopolitics
March 2026
Geopolitics and the geometry of global trade: 2026 update
McKinsey & Company
Research
59 Pages
McKinsey documents the emerging realignment of trade along geopolitical lines and examines how these dynamics evolved in 2025.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2026
Hormuz Disruption May Impact Global Agriculture Prices
Goldman Sachs
Research
11 Pages
Goldman Sachs explains how the disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz impacts the global nitrogen fertilizer market (which accounts for 60% of global fertilizer use), and why the Middle East conflict underscores the role of commodities as a hedge against supply disruptions.
Fiscal Policy
March 2026
Revamping Britain’s balance sheet for growth and prosperity
McKinsey & Company
Research
10 Pages
Although inflation remains above the Bank of England’s target level, the United Kingdom’s recent correction provides an opportunity to consider how best to rebuild the country’s “balance sheet”—its assets and liabilities across corporations, households, and governments.
Geopolitics
March 2026
Global Economics Comment: Supply Shocks from the War in Iran Are Mostly Limited to Energy
Goldman Sachs
Research
12 Pages
Goldman Sachs shares an update on the war in Iran and believes that the major risk to global supply and inflation is mostly confined to energy, which limits the risk that the large second-round inflation effects observed in 2021-2022 will re-emerge.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2026
The Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056
Congressional Budget Office
Research
39 Pages
In CBO's projections, the U.S. population grows from 349 million people in 2026 to 364 million in 2056, and the average age rises. Starting in 2030, annual deaths exceed annual births, and net immigration accounts for all population growth.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2026
Trade in Transition: How to Prepare for a Patchwork World Order
BCG
Research
16 Pages
As the multilateralism dissolves, a new order seems to be emerging in which goods are traded under different sets of rules. BCG created four scenarios for the next decade, and sees momentum for a multi-nodal trade patchwork.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2026
Tech Trumps Tariffs: US Exceptionalism and the AI Productivity Boom
Hudson Bay Capital
Research
18 Pages
Nouriel Roubini’s latest covers on the coming AI-driven secular boom, why Tech Trumps Tariffs, why American Exceptionalism is not over and thus the stock market is not in an AI bubble, and why the Exorbitant Privilege of the US Dollar isn’t over and thus US dollar weakness is temporary.
Commodities
March 2026
A crude awakening
Carlyle
Research
8 Pages
Jeff Currie and James Gutman examine how a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could affect global energy security, commodity markets, and capital allocation during an incomplete energy transition.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2026
Global Debt Report 2026
OECD
Research
160 Pages
Borrowing by governments and companies from debt markets was at historic highs in 2025, reaching $27 trillion, and is set to rise to $29 trillion in 2026.
Annual Report
March 2026
Country Risk Atlas 2026: Under the surface
Allianz
Research
179 Pages
The 2026 edition of the Country Risk Atlas assesses the economic outlook, risks and opportunities across 83 countries, representing approximately 94% of global GDP.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2026
Global Economics Comment: Global Economic Impacts of the War in Iran
Goldman Sachs
Research
9 Pages
Goldman Sachs evaluates the impact of the war in Iran on global growth, inflation, and policy rates.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2026
At 250, sustaining America’s competitive edge
McKinsey & Company
Research
79 Pages
McKinsey examines the arc of US competitiveness, past, present, and future. America’s history of reinvention holds compelling lessons as the nation confronts a future of immense if uncertain opportunity.
Geopolitics
March 2026
2026 Geopolitical Outlook
Deutsche Bank
Research
21 Pages
Deutsche Bank provides a high-level assessment of some of the key themes, risks and opportunities we believe investors should consider in 2026.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2026
The Macroeconomic Spillovers From AI Electricity Demand
Goldman Sachs
Research
20 Pages
Goldman Sachs assesses the outlook for electricity prices and explore their spillover effects to consumers and non-AI businesses.
AI
March 2026
The AI Bubble: Hidden Risks and Opportunities
Man Group
Research
13 Pages
Man Group seeks to clarify the mechanics of the AI cycle at year-end 2025: the recursive demand loops, off‑balance‑sheet leverage, distorted demand signals, and the most likely paths of unwinding.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2026
Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?
Federal Reserve Bank
Research
5 Pages
Liberty Street Economics finds that nearly 90% of the tariffs’ economic burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers through November 2025.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2026
Productivity Stagnation in the Construction Industry: An International Perspective
Goldman Sachs
Research
20 Pages
Goldman Sachs explains why US construction has become a rare sector where productivity has declined over time, unlike the broader economy.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2026
2025’s Implications for the Future: “Some Like it Hot”?
Research Affiliates
Research
28 Pages
Jim Masturzo says markets in a high temperature regime show unpredictable correlations and return patterns compared with stable low volatility environments.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2026
The Macro Implications of the AI Capex Boom
Bridgewater
Research
12 Pages
Bridgewater explains why the current surge in AI-related capital expenditure is a much bigger macroeconomic force than consensus expects.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2026
Demand Shocks as Technology Shocks
Research
47 Pages
The authors propose a macro framework where demand can look like productivity because stronger demand induces more market search and matching.
Currency
January 2026
2026 Global FX Outlook: Different Dollar Downside
Goldman Sachs
Research
46 Pages
Goldman Sachs outlines why the US dollar may drift lower in 2026 as global growth and returns become more balanced.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2026
2025
Research
8 Pages
Ray Dalio looks back at 2025, noting, “While most people see US stocks and particularly US AI stocks to be the best investments and hence the biggest investment story of 2025, it is indisputably true that the biggest returns came from 1) what happened to the value of money and 2) US stocks significantly underperforming both non-US stock markets and gold.”
Global Macroeconomics
January 2026
National Security Strategy of the United States of America
The White House
Research
33 Pages
The Trump Administration published their 2025 National Security Strategy.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2026
Ten things about Venezuela: on oil, geopolitics and drugs
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Research
9 Pages
Michael Cembalest argues Venezuela is not currently central to global oil supply, so even dramatic geopolitics might have limited direct oil impact.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2026
Financialization: How Deficits Inflate Profits and Equity Valuations
Research Affiliates
Research
10 Pages
Research Affiliates argues persistent fiscal deficits can flow almost one for one into corporate profits, then get capitalized into equity prices through passive, price insensitive demand.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2026
AI economic scenarios: Revolutionary growth, or recessionary bubble?
Schroders
Research
8 Pages
Schroders frames AI as a fork in the road for macro and markets: either productivity compounds fast, or a hype cycle breaks and drags sentiment and spending down.
China
January 2026
US Exceptionalism Versus Chinese Uninvestibility (Part I)
Gavekal
Research
16 Pages
Louis-Vincent Gave contrasts United States equity strength with the idea that China has become uninvestible as policy choices diverged, arguing that China has deliberately redirected savings into domestic supply chains and resilience, accepting weaker market returns as the price.
Economics
December 2025
Work from Home and AI Trends
Research
26 Pages
Stanford's Nick Bloom shared an update on work from home and AI trends.
Market Outlooks
December 2025
Macro Outlook 2026: Sturdy Growth, Stagnant Jobs, Stable Prices
Goldman Sachs
Research
24 Pages
Goldman Sachs sets out a 2026 macro outlook featuring stronger than consensus global growth with subdued job creation and moderating inflation.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2025
An Update to the Demographic Outlook, 2025 to 2055
Congressional Budget Office
Research
15 Pages
CBO projects that the U.S. population will increase from 350 million people in 2025 to 367 million people in 2055.
AI
December 2025
How Much Does AI Rhyme with shAle?
Carlyle
Research
9 Pages
Carlyle compares the current artificial intelligence compute boom with the shale energy investment cycle to ask how much history rhymes.
AI
December 2025
Google’s Gemini 3 Means AI’s “Resource Grab” Phase Is On
Bridgewater
Research
9 Pages
Bridgewater Associates uses Google Gemini 3 as evidence that artificial intelligence has entered a resource grab phase driven by compute, chips and power.
Miscellaneous
December 2025
Investors Pick Their Favorite Reads
We asked all of the guests from The Meb Faber Show: What books did you read this year that you’d […]
Annual Report
December 2025
Insights from the 2025 Schwab RIA Benchmarking Study
Charles Schwab
Research
54 Pages
The RIA Benchmarking Study provides information on topics such as asset and revenue growth, sources of new clients, products and pricing, staffing, compensation, marketing, technology, and financial performance.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2025
Capital Gains Taxes and the Misallocation of Housing
Moody’s
Research
15 Pages
Moody’s Analytics analyzes how static capital gains exclusions trap older homeowners in oversized houses, clogging housing mobility and limiting supply for growing families.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2025
A Payroll Playbook to Gauge Recession Risk
Hussman Funds
Research
18 Pages
Bill Hester lays out a payroll based framework for reading recession risks from upcoming jobs reports.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2025
The Big Dangers of Big Bubbles with Big Wealth Gaps
Research
23 Pages
Ray Dalio explains how bubbles form when financial wealth grows far faster than actual money, then burst when investors must sell to raise cash.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2025
A practitioner՚s guide to forecasting in unprecedented times
Deutsche Bank
Research
64 Pages
Deutsche Bank Research Institute reviews macro forecasting through the lens of the Covid period and its aftermath. The authors walk through successive phases from collapse to recovery to inflation shock, asking why traditional models struggled when history offered few guides.
Argentina
November 2025
Argentina, 1500-2023: An Institutional Story
AIER
Research
21 Pages
American Institute for Economic Research traces Argentina's institutional journey from colonial roots to today's turbulent reform moment.
Fiscal Policy
November 2025
What Is a Tariff Shock? Insights from 150 years of Tariff Policy
Federal Reserve Bank
Research
25 Pages
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco economists study tariff shocks over 150 years to estimate their macroeconomic effects.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2025
Thoughts From the Road: Europe
KKR
Research
13 Pages
Henry McVey describes a cautious yet constructive view on Europe, where attractive valuations and underowned markets support risk assets into 2026.
Energy
November 2025
The Energy Trade-Off
Gavekal
Research
6 Pages
Louis-Vincent Gave examines the trade offs between securing affordable, reliable energy and accelerating decarbonization.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2025
50 Years of the Bridgewater Daily Observations
Bridgewater
Research
13 Pages
Bridgewater shared 13 of their 50 best Daily Observations, ranging from 1976 to 2024.
Economics
November 2025
Jobless Growth
Goldman Sachs
Research
15 Pages
Jan Haitzus’ team looks at the state of the labor market and considers the potential macro, monetary policy, and market implications of rapid technological progress.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2025
Understanding Gold
Research
44 Pages
Gold’s reputation as a safe haven is tested against data on inflation hedging, diversification, and crisis protection.
Geopolitics
October 2025
Geopolitical flashpoints: What markets may be underestimating
Deutsche Bank
Research
16 Pages
Deutsche Bank Research Institute examines why markets may be complacent toward escalating geopolitical risks and how fear can trigger sharp risk off episodes.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2025
Power Politics: Energy Self-Sufficiency in a Modern Mercantilist World
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater examines how energy self sufficiency is becoming a defining source of geopolitical and economic power as governments prioritize resilience over globalization.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2025
Macro State of Play
KKR
Research
11 Pages
KKR’s Global Macro team, led by Henry McVey, outlines how a new “Regime Change” in markets is reshaping asset allocation and global investment opportunities.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2025
Dollar Dominance and Dollar Depreciation — Moving on Different Tracks (Trivedi/Jenkins)
Goldman Sachs
Research
16 Pages
Goldman Sachs examines the resilience of the U.S. dollar’s dominance in global finance alongside a forecast for continued currency depreciation.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2025
Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs
Research
36 Pages
Harvard Business School Pricing Lab measures how newly imposed U.S. tariffs feed into retail prices using daily product data linked to HS codes and country of origin.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2025
The Rising Tide of Government Interest Costs (Cole)
Goldman Sachs
Research
10 Pages
Goldman Sachs explains why G10 government interest costs are still climbing even as policy rates peak: large debt stocks are being refinanced at higher rates while deficits remain wide.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2025
Convictions And Concerns
Gavekal
Research
10 Pages
Evergreen Gavekal’s Louis-Vincent Gave reviews major 2025 market trends through the lenses of fundamentals, valuations, momentum, positioning, and policy. He outlines three main convictions: a U.S. dollar bear market, a Chinese equity bull market, and financials’ continued strength amid reflationary policies.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2025
Through the Looking Glass
Carlyle
Research
23 Pages
Carlyle examines how the global economy is entering a “post-normal” phase characterized by higher equilibrium interest rates, shifting capital flows, and uneven productivity gains from AI.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2025
Thoughts From the Road: Southeast Asia
KKR
Research
9 Pages
KKR reflects on recent meetings in Southeast Asia, highlighting strong 2025 equity performance, capital inflows, and demographic tailwinds.
Global Macroeconomics
August 2025
The New Joule Order
Carlyle
Research
27 Pages
Jeff Currie posits that energy security, rather than climate concerns, is now the primary driver of the global energy transition.
Global Macroeconomics
August 2025
What Not to Watch: Data Reliability and Market Sensitivity to Economic Surprises (Walker)
Goldman Sachs
Research
15 Pages
Goldman Sachs explores a world of rising macro uncertainty, where traditional economic relationships are weakening and policy ambiguity has surged.
Global Macroeconomics
August 2025
Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence
Stanford University
Research
57 Pages
Stanford researchers use payroll data from ADP to analyze how generative AI adoption is reshaping employment across occupations.
Global Macroeconomics
August 2025
The unstoppable dollar meets the immovable Mr Trump
Ninety One
Research
23 Pages
Ninety One assesses whether structural shifts—including rising twin deficits, fiscal unpredictability, global geopolitical rebalancing, and eroding U.S. rate advantages—could finally reverse a decades-long U.S. dollar up‑cycle.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2025
What Would It Take to Bring Back US Manufacturing? Part 2
Bridgewater
Research
9 Pages
Bridgewater and Eclipse identify the technologies needed to close the U.S. productivity gap and restore competitiveness in manufacturing.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2025
What Would It Take to Bring Back US Manufacturing? Part 1
Bridgewater
Research
11 Pages
Bridgewater and Eclipse analyze the deep structural obstacles facing U.S. manufacturing amid renewed efforts to reshore production.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2025
Immigration Policy and Its Macroeconomic Effects in the Second Trump Administration
American Enterprise Institute
Research
13 Pages
AEI’s report assesses how immigration policy under a potential second Trump term could affect U.S. macroeconomic conditions.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2025
What to watch: A fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, paying for and quarterly country and sector risk update
Allianz
Research
12 Pages
The authors assess market and macro implications of a fragile Middle East ceasefire, Europe’s rising defense bills, and shifting country and sector risks.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2025
Mapping the World’s Prices – 2025
Deutsche Bank
Research
58 Pages
Deutsche Bank has a fun look at the world’s cheapest and most expensive cities, covering the quality of life, rental costs and prices for phones, coffee, taxis and more in 69 cities.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2025
The US Dollar and Why International Stocks are Outperforming YTD
Johnson Financial Group
Research
7 Pages
Johnson Financial Group explains that the US dollar’s sharp depreciation in 2025 has significantly boosted the relative performance of foreign equities for US investors, as currency effects can outweigh underlying stock movement.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2025
US fiscal worries: Is this time different?
Goldman Sachs
Research
28 Pages
Goldman Sachs’ covers the US fiscal deficit issue from a variety of angles. This includes interviews with Ray Dalio, Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff, and historian Sir Niall Ferguson and have other commentary around this issue for Europe, Asia and Emerging Markets.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2025
Signal over noise #10: The fiscal tightrope
UBS
Research
7 Pages
Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi explains why she believes the US debt burden remains manageable and that growth is the best option for the US to reduce the deficit over time.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2025
The New Martial Plan
Carlyle
Research
28 Pages
As the United States retreats from international cooperation, the world is arguably becoming more dangerous and more expensive. Jeff Currie’s latest looks at the implications of this shifting security landscape.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2025
The Path to 2075 – The Positive Story of Global Aging
Goldman Sachs
Research
21 Pages
Goldman Sachs reframes global aging as an opportunity rather than a crisis, noting that longevity gains and healthier aging are extending effective working lives.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2025
The power of one: How standout firms grow national productivity
McKinsey & Company
Research
94 Pages
McKinsey finds a small number of firms contribute the majority of productivity growth in a country.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2025
The Art of Learning
KKR
Research
26 Pages
KKR shares how recent events surrounding trade, geopolitics, and monetary policy have amplified their Regime Change thesis.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2025
Tariffs and the US Trade Deficit, Where Are We Headed?
Deutsche Bank
Research
26 Pages
After appreciating about 40% from the end of the GFC (2011), the dollar reversed course earlier this year and is now down more than 5% from its peak this January.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2025
The growing role of private credit and the outlook for corporate finance
Apollo
Research
36 Pages
Torsten Slok examines the expanding role of private credit in corporate finance, noting that its share of the U.S. debt market has grown from 1.7% in 2003 to 6.6% in 2023.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2025
Signs of the Times: Five Indicators of Regime Change
Man Group
Research
19 Pages
While various economic indicators can signal regime change, market pricing measures can offer clearer timing cues. Henry Neville shares five quantitative signs that secular stagnation is over.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2025
Is the worst of both worlds returning? Understanding stagflation risk – a stagflation primer
Meketa
Research
15 Pages
Meketa Investment Group explores the rare but consequential risk of stagflation—a simultaneous rise in inflation and stagnating growth—highlighting its historical rarity and costly market implications.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2025
Stimulus Does Not Stimulate
Research Affiliates
Research
11 Pages
Rob Arnott challenges the prevailing belief that government stimulus spending and debt issuance reliably boost economic growth.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2025
Adapting to a New Reality
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater argues that investors face a fundamentally different geopolitical, economic, and technological environment.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2025
The Impact of Uncertainty on Investment, Hiring, and Consumer Spending
Goldman Sachs
Research
17 Pages
Goldman Sachs Research analyzes the impact of heightened policy uncertainty on U.S. business investment, hiring, and consumer spending.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2025
AI Beneficiaries: Investing in Second-Order Effects
Morgan Stanley
Research
18 Pages
Morgan Stanley covers the second-order effects of AI & automation, noting that while big technological innovations create huge investment opportunities, it’s often the companies that leverage the technology, rather than the suppliers that create the most enduring value for investors.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2025
What’s Driving the Surge in U.S. Corporate Profits?
Federal Reserve Bank
Research
7 Pages
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis reports that U.S. corporate profits have reached near-record highs since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, both in nominal terms and as a share of national income.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2025
Investing Amid Trade Wars
Sparkline Capital
Research
14 Pages
Kai Wu measures firms’ global trade exposure based on their reliance on foreign revenues, supply chains, and employees.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2025
The Growing Risk to US Assets
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater explains why the foundation supporting elevated US asset prices may be weakening as global trade, capital flows, and policy dynamics shift.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2025
Investing in a New World: Capturing Opportunity and Weathering Uncertainty
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater examines how today's investment landscape has shifted beyond the exceptional US equity rally into a world shaped by AI, geopolitics, and higher uncertainty.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2025
Rising Toxicity and the Threat to Capitalism and Life Itself
GMO
Research
19 Pages
Jeremy Grantham warns that the unchecked spread of synthetic industrial chemicals—particularly endocrine disruptors—is a growing yet underrecognized risk to human health, biodiversity, and the future viability of modern economic systems.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2025
A practitioner՚s guide to forecasting in unprecedented times
Deutsche Bank
Research
64 Pages
Deutsche Bank Research's report examines the evolving economic landscape, focusing on macroeconomic trends, growth dynamics, and policy implications.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2025
Ferguson’s Law: Debt Service, Military Spending, and the Fiscal Limits of Power
Hoover Institution
Research
34 Pages
Historian Niall Ferguson introduces a principle suggesting that a great power is at risk of decline when its debt servicing costs surpass its defense spending.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2025
An Acceleration in the Global Flywheel
KKR
Research
27 Pages
Henry McVey, Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation, says he “can’t think of a time outside of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis when investor appetite for what is going on in the macro landscape has been this high.” This expands on his 2025 outlook by covering a variety of topics, including tariffs and U.S.-China tensions.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2025
AI, demographics, and the U.S. economy
Vanguard
Research
33 Pages
Vanguard examines the push and pull between artificial intelligence and demographic-driven deficits, exploring their impact on U.S. economic growth in the decade ahead.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2025
Dependency and depopulation: Confronting the consequences of a new demographic reality
McKinsey & Company
Research
82 Pages
McKinsey explores the implications of a new demographic reality brought on by falling fertility and increasing longevity.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2025
Sector-Adjusted Global Stock Market Valuation and Long-Term Outlook
Taunus Trust
Research
7 Pages
Taunus Trust analyzes sector-adjusted valuations across forty equity markets to estimate long-term real return prospects.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2025
It Was A Very Good Year
Charles Schwab
Research
6 Pages
Charles Schwab reviews why 2024 was a standout year for U.S. equities while cautioning that frothy sentiment and narrow leadership add risk.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2025
The 2020-2025 Sovereign Debt Crisis: What have we learnt and what lies ahead?
Lazard
Research
6 Pages
Lazard's Sovereign Advisory team, which has served as the sole financial advisor to most countries facing debt distress since 2020, shares what they’ve learned from helping countries navigate the shocks of COVID-19, the Russia/Ukraine war and global monetary tightening.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2025
The Inauguration: the flurry of Trump 2.0 executive orders
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Research
10 Pages
J.P. Morgan’s January 2025 “Eye on the Market” update examines the early impacts of the Trump administration’s second-term executive orders.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2025
Did the U.S. Really Grow Out of Its World War II Debt?
IMF
Research
55 Pages
Last year, the IMF released a paper that analyzed the role of three factors to the U.S. public debt/GDP ratio from 106% in 1946 to 23% in 1974: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged interest rates before the Fed-Treasury Accord of 1951.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2025
Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade
BCG
Research
16 Pages
While BCG projects that total world trade in goods will grow at an average of 2.9% annually for the next ten years, they believe routes goods travel will change markedly. This report explains how.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2024
We Are All Mercantilists Now
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater argues that the global economy is shifting from free trade toward modern mercantilism, where governments increasingly shape trade, industry, and corporate outcomes.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2024
An Update from Our CIOs: Entering the Second Stage of Tightening
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater examines why the tightening cycle may be entering a second stage, with long term rates now doing more of the work.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2024
We Are Headed Towards a System of National Capitalism
The Market
Research
15 Pages
Russell Napier argues that the global financial system, established in 1994, is undergoing a fundamental transformation.
Markets
December 2024
10 for 10: Themes for the Next Decade
Man Group
Research
9 Pages
Man Group presents ten secular investment themes expected to shape markets over the coming decade, grounded in geopolitical shifts, structural economic changes, and technological disruption.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2024
We’re All Mercantilists Now
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater examines the global shift toward modern mercantilism, where governments increasingly prioritize industrial policy, trade balances, and national security over free market efficiency.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2024
We’re All Mercantilists Now
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater examines the global shift from free trade toward modern mercantilism, where governments increasingly prioritize national strength over market efficiency.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2024
We’re All Mercantilists Now
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater examines the global shift toward modern mercantilism, where governments increasingly prioritize national strength, domestic industry, and trade balances over free market efficiency.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2024
A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System
Hudson Bay Capital
Research
41 Pages
Stephen Marin, the new Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, and the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” are being mentioned more frequently as of late.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2024
Investing Around the Election and the Government Debt Problem
BlackRock
Research
10 Pages
Rick Rieder explores how U.S. economic resilience and rising government debt shape investment opportunities during and after the election cycle.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2024
Prejudice And China
Gavekal
Research
10 Pages
Louis-Vincent Gave highlights how Western leaders missed China’s leap in industrial growth due to travel restrictions, media bias, and cultural prejudice.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2024
An Update from Our CIOs: Navigating the Limits
Bridgewater
Research
4 Pages
Bridgewater's CIOs say the macro environment is being shaped by how highly proactive policy makers navigate around economic and market limits.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2024
Thoughts on Stocks for the 2024 Election
The Prudent Speculator
Research
13 Pages
The report advises investors to maintain a steady, long-term approach to investing, unaffected by the 2024 election’s political climate, while selectively highlighting potential stock opportunities influenced by either a Harris or Trump administration.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2024
Is an AI Bubble Ahead of Us or Behind Us?
Bridgewater
Research
13 Pages
Greg Jensen suggests that the combination of breakthrough AI advancements and a ripe macroeconomic environment indicates the AI bubble may still be forming, rather than behind us.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2024
Change Required: Immigration Reform is an Economic Necessity
Research Affiliates
Research
8 Pages
Research Affiliates explains why immigration reform is necessary for the future success of the U.S. economy, noting that immigration of skilled workers in short supply boosts growth of the labor force and enhances productivity.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2024
Marriage Market Sorting in the U.S.
Federal Reserve Bank
Research
51 Pages
The Fed examined the shifts in the U.S. marriage market, assessing how online dating, demographic changes, and evolving societal norms influence mate choice and broader sorting trends.
Markets
August 2024
Mind the Gap 2024
Morningstar
Research
20 Pages
This report examines how investor behavior—specifically, the timing of purchases and redemptions—creates a persistent gap between fund returns and investor returns.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2024
Climate Policies Are Starting to Bite, Creating Headwinds for the Green Transition
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater examines how climate policies are increasingly colliding with economic realities, creating political resistance that could slow the green transition.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2024
The CEO Macro Briefing Book
UBS
Research
79 Pages
UBS offers an update on their “Roaring 20’s” thesis for the US economy, covering the cooling macro environment, the recent rotation in stocks, dealmaking activity in the second quarter, and an updated election outlook.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2024
Are Corporates on Track to Cut Their Emissions?
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater explains why corporate net zero commitments deserve closer scrutiny, arguing that announced targets alone reveal little about actual progress.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2024
The roar is getting a little louder: Assessing the “Roaring ‘20s” outlook for the US economy
UBS
Research
47 Pages
This report assesses whether the U.S. economy is entering a new macroeconomic regime similar to the 1990s “Roaring 20s.”
Markets
May 2024
Improving investing outcomes by minimizing investor bias
Vanguard
Research
5 Pages
Vanguard explores how cognitive biases can impede investment decision-making and offers strategies to mitigate their impact.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2024
Generally Faster: The Economic Impact of Generative AI
Research
30 Pages
Andrew McAfee partners with Google to write about the benefits & challenges of AI on the economy.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2024
Exploring the Implications of Sub-Saharan Africa’s Demographic Explosion
Bridgewater
Research
9 Pages
This paper explores how sub-Saharan Africa’s rapidly expanding working-age population may shape the global economy over coming decades.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2024
Macro Pulse
New York Life Investments
Research
63 Pages
New York Life Investments shares their global economic, geopolitical and asset allocation views, noting they believe the next 3 months mark a major inflection point for global asset allocation.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2024
Do We Have the Technologies Necessary to Reduce Global Emissions?
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
The authors examine whether today's climate technologies are sufficient to achieve global net zero goals.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2024
GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models
Research
43 Pages
In Meb’s episode with Rick Rieder, Rick mentioned this was the most impactful paper he read last year. It investigates the potential implications of large language models (LLMs) on the U.S. labor market.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2024
The Big Picture: Back to the Future
Bridgewater
Research
1 Pages
Bridgewater explains why the investment environment is beginning to resemble earlier decades, with higher interest rates, persistent inflation, and a larger government role replacing the conditions that defined the post 2008 era.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2023
The Fourth Big Force: Climate Change
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater explains why climate change should be viewed as a structural force shaping economies, markets, and capital allocation over decades.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2023
From Abundance to Austerity: Why the Next Decade Won’t Be Like the Last
Research Affiliates
Research
9 Pages
Research Affiliates argues that investors are moving from an era of abundant liquidity to one defined by austerity and higher real returns.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2023
The Evolution of Work From Home
Research
28 Pages
The authors examine how work from home has evolved from a marginal practice to a central feature of modern labor markets.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2023
Gaps in Financing Highlight the Challenges Facing the Net Zero Transition
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
The authors examine whether global bank financing is keeping pace with the capital required for the net zero transition.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2023
Certainly Uncertain
AQR
Research
11 Pages
AQR Capital Management examines how unusually high macroeconomic uncertainty is today and whether it is likely to fade or persist.
Global Macroeconomics
August 2023
Has the Fed Tightened Enough? Guideposts to Consider
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater examines whether Federal Reserve tightening has gone far enough to sustainably return inflation to target.
Global Macroeconomics
August 2023
How the World Is Tracking Against Its Climate Goals—and the Implications for Economies and Markets
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
The authors examine how global climate policies are progressing, where emissions remain off track, and what that could mean for economies and financial markets.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2023
Still Keeping It Simple Mid-Year Update 2023
KKR
Research
68 Pages
KKR Global Macro and Asset Allocation lays out a constructive mid year outlook built around its Keep It Simple framework.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2023
Volume II – Real Assets Market Overview
Clocktower Group
Research
23 Pages
Clocktower Group examines how markets have processed the war in Ukraine and what the Wagner mutiny reveals about Russia.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2023
Volume 1 – Powell and Xi Learn All About Constraints
Clocktower Group
Research
18 Pages
Clocktower Group explores how material constraints shape policy choices for Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Markets
July 2023
Taking the Temperature
Oaktree
Article
1 Pages
Oaktree explains how successful market calls come less from forecasting economies and more from recognizing extremes in investor psychology.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2023
Odds of a Hard Landing Are Increasing
Research Affiliates
Research
6 Pages
Research Affiliates evaluates how Federal Reserve tightening and an inverted yield curve are raising the odds of a hard landing.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2023
Most Global Economies Remain in Disequilibrium, Requiring Policy Action
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines why most major economies remained out of equilibrium despite substantial monetary tightening.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2023
The Curious Incident of the Elevated Profit Margins
GMO
Research
10 Pages
GMO investigates why United States corporate profit margins have stayed unusually elevated for more than a decade.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2023
Certainly Uncertain
AQR
Research
11 Pages
AQR Capital Management examines how volatile macro conditions translate into uncertainty and what that means for asset allocation.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2023
An Update from Our CIOs: The Tightening Cycle Is Beginning to Bite
Bridgewater
Research
17 Pages
Bridgewater Associates explains how last year’s rapid tightening is now meaningfully constricting money, credit, and economic activity.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2023
Sizing the Impact of the Banking Crisis on the Broader Economy
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
The authors examine how banking stress could spread into the broader economy by restricting credit and encouraging more saving.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2023
The Banking System and Credit Pipes Are Being Reshaped
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines how higher deposit costs could reshape US banking, bond demand, and credit availability.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2023
What We’ve Learned So Far from the Bank Run
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater examines how the March 2023 bank run exposed a deeper problem for banks: rapidly rising funding costs against lower yielding assets.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2023
Regime Change: The Role of Private Equity in the ‘Traditional’ Portfolio
KKR
Research
22 Pages
KKR Global Institute examines how private equity can reshape traditional portfolios in a new macro regime where stocks and bonds move together.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2023
The Tightening Cycle Is Approaching Stage 3: Guideposts We’re Watching
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
The authors argue that the tightening cycle is nearing a third stage, with either an economic downturn or stubborn inflation keeping policy restrictive.
Alternative Assets
February 2023
Cost averaging: Invest now or temporarily hold your cash?
Vanguard
Research
11 Pages
Vanguard examines whether investors should invest a lump sum immediately or spread contributions over time.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2023
An Update from Our CIOs: 2022 Was a Tightening Year; In 2023 We Will See Its Effects
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines how 2022’s aggressive monetary tightening could flow through economies in 2023, arguing that markets had priced higher real yields but not their economic consequences.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2022
Bulls, Burst Bubbles And Bear Markets
Gavekal
Research
2 Pages
Gavekal argues bear markets serve a purpose: they break crowded narratives and rotate market leadership.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2022
Sea Change
Oaktree
Article
1 Pages
Oaktree Capital examines whether investors are experiencing only the third true structural shift in more than 50 years, driven by inflation and higher interest rates.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2022
The Path to a Pivot
3Fourteen Research
Research
13 Pages
3Fourteen Research lays out what would need to happen for the Fed to pause, and why bear market rallies can be seductive traps.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2022
Pursuing Net Zero Goals in Public Equities
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines how public equity investors can pursue net zero goals by allocating capital to emissions intensive sectors driving real world decarbonization.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2022
History Lessons: How “Transitory” Is Inflation?
Research Affiliates
Research
9 Pages
Research Affiliates challenges the idea that inflation reliably cools on a quick schedule once it spikes.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2022
Risk Off, Yield On
PIMCO
Research
6 Pages
PIMCO makes the case that higher yields have changed the playbook, bringing bonds back as a serious portfolio option.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2022
Where Do Greenhouse Gas Emissions Come From, and What Does That Mean for Investors?
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines where greenhouse gas emissions originate and why a relatively small group of public companies sits at the center of the climate transition.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2022
The Times They Are A-Changin’
KKR
Research
30 Pages
KKR surveys endowment and foundation chief investment officers on how they are reshaping portfolios for a regime of higher inflation and tighter liquidity.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2022
An Update from Our CIOs: Progressing Through the Tightening Cycle
Bridgewater
Research
11 Pages
Bridgewater explains how aggressive monetary tightening is shifting markets from an inflation driven environment toward weaker economic growth and more difficult policy tradeoffs.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2022
The Fed Has to Keep Tightening Until Things Get Worse
Bridgewater
Research
6 Pages
Bridgewater Associates argues the Fed is boxed in by high inflation and an unusually tight labor market, so it keeps tightening until growth and markets crack.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2022
35-Year Highs for the Dollar
GMO
Research
10 Pages
GMO explains why an overvalued U.S. dollar can quietly drag on U.S. equities while boosting markets with cheaper currencies.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2022
Aging, Deflation, and Secular Stagnation
Federal Reserve Bank
Research
9 Pages
The Atlanta Fed’s Policy Hub digs into the effects of rapid population aging on inflation, real interest rates, and GDP growth, which may be causing deflationary pressures and secular stagnation.
Miscellaneous
September 2022
The Illusion of Knowledge
Oaktree
Research
1 Pages
Oaktree Capital explains why macroeconomic forecasting often creates the illusion of knowledge rather than a durable investment edge.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2022
Europe’s Stagflation is Different in Kind and Much Harder to Remedy
Bridgewater
Research
12 Pages
Bridgewater Associates argues Europe’s energy supply shock is creating stagflation that is tougher to fix than a standard demand slowdown
Global Macroeconomics
August 2022
Insights into the Inflation Print
Research Affiliates
Research
10 Pages
Research Affiliates unpacks why a better looking monthly inflation number can hide stickier underlying pressures.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2022
Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy
Research
118 Pages
This paper argues business withdrawals and sanctions are delivering a deeper hit to Russia than headline data imply.
Portfolio Management
July 2022
I Beg to Differ
Oaktree
Article
1 Pages
Oaktree Capital explores why consistently outperforming requires thinking differently from the crowd rather than simply following consensus.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2022
An Update from Our CIOs: Transitioning to Stagflation
Bridgewater
Research
11 Pages
Bridgewater examines why the global economy may be shifting from a reflationary backdrop toward a prolonged stagflationary environment.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2022
Investors Need to Prepare for Stagflation
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines why investors may need to rethink portfolios built for decades of relatively stable growth and inflation.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2022
Building a Beta Portfolio in an Environment That Looks Difficult for Assets
Bridgewater
Research
17 Pages
Bridgewater Associates explains how to hold beta when inflation and Fed tightening create headwinds across most assets.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2022
Wealth Preservation
Totem Macro
Research
13 Pages
Totem Macro argues markets are moving into a new regime shaped by tighter liquidity and shifting geopolitical incentives.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2022
New Business Boom and Bust: How Capitalism Experiments
Morgan Stanley
Research
12 Pages
Morgan Stanley frames industry booms and shakeouts as capitalism experimenting, then pruning what does not work, with investing outcomes skewed toward a few winners.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2022
False Narratives Will Cost You Money
Clocktower Group
Research
29 Pages
Clocktower Group challenges popular macro stories, arguing recession certainty and simple Volcker comparisons can misprice markets.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2022
The Liquidity Hole Is Expanding
Bridgewater
Research
9 Pages
Bridgewater explains how the withdrawal of central bank liquidity and aggressive interest rate hikes are reshaping financial markets.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2022
An Update from Our CIOs: What Was Coming Is Now Upon Us
Bridgewater
Research
10 Pages
Bridgewater’s investment leaders explain how aggressive policy stimulus created a surge in nominal spending that has morphed into persistent inflation.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2022
State of Play: Global Macro Trends
KKR
Research
32 Pages
KKR’s global macro team outlines how the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have accelerated a regime shift toward higher inflation, more volatile growth and greater geopolitical tension.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2022
Putin’s Invasion Reminds Us That We Live in a Finite World
GMO
Research
4 Pages
GMO’s Jeremy Grantham uses the invasion of Ukraine as a lens on long running constraints in energy, metals and other natural resources.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2022
Markets Continue to Discount That the Fed Will Achieve a Soft Landing; Is That Likely?
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater examines whether markets were too optimistic in pricing both resilient earnings and rapidly falling inflation.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2022
Assessing the Demand Destruction That Will Be Needed to Balance the Oil Market
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater examines how severe oil demand destruction may need to become to rebalance a market already facing tight supply and disrupted Russian exports.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2022
War and Markets: What’s The Connection?
Wellington Management
Article
6 Pages
Wellington examines how wars historically influence financial markets, challenging the assumption that geopolitical conflict consistently drives major asset price swings.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2022
Fed faces choices as challenging as any since the 1970s
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater examines why the Federal Reserve faces one of its toughest policy challenges since the 1970s as inflation collides with historically low rates.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2022
2022 Global Outlook: The Success and Excesses Resulting from MP3 Policies
Bridgewater
Research
10 Pages
Bridgewater explains how coordinated monetary and fiscal policies successfully revived economies but also created inflationary pressures, excess liquidity, and difficult tradeoffs for central banks.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2021
A Different Kind of Recovery
KKR
Research
60 Pages
KKR explores why the post-pandemic cycle may look structurally different, driven by persistent policy support, excess savings, and the energy transition.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2021
Penciling Out the Impact of an Accelerated Climate Transition on Investors’ Portfolios
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
The authors examine how an accelerated shift to a low carbon economy could affect investment portfolios through four distinct transition pathways.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2021
The Rise and Rise of the Global Balance Sheet: How Productively Are We Using Our Wealth?
McKinsey & Company
Research
32 Pages
McKinsey Global Institute examines how global wealth has expanded faster than economic output using a “global balance sheet” framework.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2021
A Factor-Based Approach To Currency Management
Insight Investment
Research
12 Pages
Insight Investment explores how a factor-based framework can improve currency management by capturing drivers like carry, value, and momentum.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2021
It’s Mostly a Demand Shock, Not a Supply Shock, and It’s Everywhere
Bridgewater
Research
1 Pages
Bridgewater explains why persistent inflation reflects a powerful demand shock rather than widespread supply failures.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2021
Who Will Prove Most Vulnerable To The Pullback In Liquidity?
Bridgewater
Research
10 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines how the unwind of global liquidity is likely to expose vulnerabilities across equity markets, with a particular focus on the US.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2021
How Does Quality Work?
Verdad
Research
6 Pages
Verdad examines why the quality factor has historically outperformed, focusing on profitability as the defining feature and questioning what truly drives excess returns.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2021
Part 2: What To Do in The Case Of Sustained Inflation
GMO
Research
11 Pages
GMO builds on its inflation framework by examining how asset returns may shift in a more inflationary regime, arguing that traditional portfolios may struggle if inflation settles above prior norms.
Global Macroeconomics
August 2021
Part 1: Inflation – Tall Tales And True Causes
GMO
Research
11 Pages
GMO examines the structural drivers of inflation, arguing that the disinflationary forces of the past few decades are reversing as demographics, globalization, and policy trends shift.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2021
Why We Doubt Inflationary Dynamics Will Revert to What They Were Pre-Pandemic
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines the tension between rising inflation and growth pressures and central banks’ efforts to suppress bond yields.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2021
Testing The Limits Of Reflation
KKR
Research
28 Pages
KKR explores how aggressive fiscal and monetary policy are pushing the global economy into a reflationary regime, reshaping asset allocation and return expectations.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2021
Weighing the Push and Pull of Stronger Growth and Waning Liquidity for Equity Markets
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
The authors examine how stronger economic growth and fading liquidity could pull equities in opposite directions, with US stocks looking unusually exposed.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2021
How Would America Look without the Coasts? Wide Geographic Disparities in the New Policy Paradigm
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates explores how widening geographic labor market disparities may influence monetary and fiscal policy.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2021
Historic Turbulence Ahead
3Fourteen Research
Research
11 Pages
3Fourteen Research analyzes periods of historic market turbulence, focusing on how volatility regimes evolve and what they imply for future returns.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2021
7 reasons for a weaker US dollar and stronger international stocks
Invesco
Research
18 Pages
Invesco examines how US dollar movements influence the relative performance of international equities, arguing that currency trends are often an overlooked driver of returns.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2020
Following Recent Good News on the Vaccine, There Are the Facts, Perspective, and Still More Uncertainty
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
The authors examine how Pfizer and BioNTech’s encouraging vaccine announcement reshaped expectations across markets while emphasizing the uncertainty still surrounding efficacy, safety, and distribution.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2020
Beyond the Election: What Doesn’t Change Will Be a Lot More Than What Does
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
The authors argue that the forces shaping markets after the 2020 election matter more than the election itself.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2020
Fiscal Stimulus Matters More Than Ever: Is It Falling Short?
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
The authors examine how the speed, size, and structure of fiscal stimulus shaped economic recoveries during the pandemic
Fiscal Policy
September 2020
Fiscal Stimulus Matters More Than Ever: Is It Falling Short?
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines how the size, speed, and design of fiscal stimulus shaped economic recoveries during the pandemic.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2020
Social Conditions Are an Increasing Consideration for How the Economy Will Be Managed
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
The authors argue that deteriorating social conditions are becoming increasingly important to economic policy as traditional measures like unemployment fail to capture broader prosperity.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2020
“Building a Balanced and Scalable Strategic Asset Allocation to Meet Financial and ESG Impact Goals”
Bridgewater
Research
4 Pages
Bridgewater explores how institutional investors can pursue financial objectives alongside ESG impact by embedding sustainability directly into strategic asset allocation.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2020
Grappling With The New Reality Of Zero Bond Yields Virtually Everywhere
Bridgewater
Research
28 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines the implications of a world where bond yields are near zero across major economies, reframing how investors should think about risk, return, and portfolio construction.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2020
Reflation in Warp Speed
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
The authors examine how the pandemic triggered the fastest asset reflation in modern history, driven by unprecedented monetary and fiscal intervention.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2020
Yield Curve Control: What It Is, Who Is Doing It, and What It Means
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates explores how yield curve control lets central banks pin interest rates at specific maturities, potentially changing how bonds behave when growth and inflation move.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2020
Global Macro Shifts – Navigating Uncertain Waters: Preparing For A Post-Pandemic World
Franklin Templeton
Research
30 Pages
Franklin Templeton examines how COVID reshapes the global economy, arguing this downturn could be far deeper than 2008 and leave lasting structural shifts.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2020
Examining the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Economies
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines how climate change could reshape global economies, emphasizing how uncertain the range of outcomes remains.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2020
Can Policy Makers Actually Get What They Want?
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines whether coordinated monetary and fiscal policy can stabilize markets without fully repairing the underlying economy
Miscellaneous
May 2020
Uncertainty II
Oaktree
Research
7 Pages
Oaktree Capital explains why uncertainty is an unavoidable part of investing and why demanding certainty before acting can become a costly mistake.
Miscellaneous
May 2020
Uncertainty
Oaktree
Research
13 Pages
Oaktree Capital examines why uncertainty is unavoidable in investing and argues that acknowledging its limits can lead to better decision making.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2020
Thinking Through the Wide Range of Possible Economic Outcomes
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines how the pandemic shock could ripple through economies well beyond the initial shutdowns, with global GDP already down over 20%.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2020
Keep Calm And Carry On
KKR
Research
20 Pages
KKR examines how Covid-19 is hitting a highly leveraged global system at a moment of peak margins, arguing the shock exposes structural fragilities rather than creating them.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2020
The Coronavirus’s $20 Trillion Hit to Global Corporations
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
The authors examine how the coronavirus shock could ripple through global corporations, profits, spending, and balance sheets.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2020
The Crisis Is Accelerating the New Paradigm
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines how the COVID shock accelerated a shift toward coordinated fiscal and monetary policy as traditional central bank tools reached their limits.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2020
The Coronavirus’s $4 Trillion Hit to US Corporations
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
The authors examine how the COVID 19 shock could create an estimated $4 trillion decline in US corporate revenue and the ripple effects across businesses, credit markets, and the broader economy.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2020
How We Are Thinking About Coronavirus and Its Impact on Markets
Bridgewater
Research
9 Pages
Bridgewater explains how the emerging coronavirus outbreak could affect markets by examining its medical, psychological, and economic implications through the lens of prior epidemics.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2020
The Idea Multiplier: An Acceleration In Innovation Is Coming
Vanguard
Research
20 Pages
Vanguard explores how idea generation and knowledge sharing drive productivity, introducing the “Idea Multiplier” as a leading indicator of innovation and economic growth.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2020
Global Macro Trends: Play Your Game
KKR
Research
60 Pages
KKR explores how COVID-19 is accelerating existing macro trends, reshaping growth, policy, and asset allocation.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2019
Does Corporate America Have a Debt Problem?
UBS
Research
15 Pages
UBS examines the structural buildup of US debt across households, corporations, and government, arguing that rising leverage is less about an imminent crisis and more about long-term economic drag and reduced policy flexibility.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2019
Social Outcomes Have Diverged from Traditional Economic Measures
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
This paper argues that traditional economic measures can mask deteriorating social conditions, which increasingly matter for politics, policy, and markets.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2019
The U.S. Dollar at A Crossroads: Estimating Fair Value
Vanguard
Research
6 Pages
Vanguard examines whether the U.S. dollar is misaligned with fundamentals and what that means for global markets and portfolios.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2019
Global Macro Trends: Wisdom in Curiosity
KKR
Research
28 Pages
KKR explores how negative interest rates, slowing global growth, and private market dynamics are reshaping asset allocation decisions.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2019
As Economies Lose Potential Energy, Investment Considerations
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates explores how aging developed economies, high debt, weak productivity, and limited monetary policy flexibility are reshaping the investment landscape.
Markets
June 2019
This Time It’s Different
Oaktree
Research
13 Pages
Oaktree Capital examines the dangerous investing mindset behind the phrase “this time it’s different.” Howard Marks evaluates nine popular market narratives and explains why optimism often pushes prices beyond intrinsic value.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2019
Vanguard Research: Megatrends The Economics of a Fraying World
Vanguard
Research
32 Pages
Vanguard explores how aging populations are reshaping global economic growth, labor markets, and investment outcomes.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2019
RA Conversations: The Inverted Yield Curve
Research Affiliates
Video
1 Pages
Research Affiliates explores how an inverted yield curve signals slowing growth while challenging the idea it guarantees a deep recession.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2019
The Uncomfortable Truth
KKR
Research
24 Pages
KKR explores how shifting macro regimes are reshaping expected returns across asset classes, arguing that the traditional 60 40 framework may no longer deliver historical outcomes.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2019
Why and How Capitalism Needs to Be Reformed
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates argues capitalism remains fundamentally sound but needs reform as widening income, wealth, and opportunity gaps threaten economic and social stability.
Portfolio Management
March 2019
Peak Profit Margins? A Global Perspective
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines whether decades of rising global profit margins can continue after unusually favorable conditions for corporations
Global Macroeconomics
February 2019
Peak Profit Margins? A US Perspective
Bridgewater
Research
17 Pages
Bridgewater Associates explores whether decades of rising US corporate profit margins are nearing a turning point and what that could mean for equity valuations.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2019
Another Swing at The Plate
KKR
Research
28 Pages
KKR explores key macro shifts shaping 2019, focusing on trade tensions, private equity opportunities, and a turning point in fixed income markets.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2018
Ghosts of Disruption Past, Present and Future.
Invesco
Research
16 Pages
Invesco explores how past industrial revolutions and current technological shifts are shaping a new era of economic disruption.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2018
Distinguishing Equity Market Corrections from Bear Markets
Bridgewater
Research
6 Pages
Bridgewater explains how to distinguish ordinary equity market corrections from bear markets by examining liquidity, risk premiums, earnings, and economic growth.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2018
Freedom, Rough Patches and The Five Bs
IR&M
Research
48 Pages
IR&M examines how economic freedom influences growth, income levels, and overall resilience across global economies.
Global Macroeconomics
August 2018
The Macro Implications of the Push Toward Electric Vehicles
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines how a global shift toward electric vehicles could reshape economic growth, infrastructure spending, and oil demand.
Portfolio Management
August 2018
The Portfolio Currency-Hedging Decision, by Objective and Block by Block
Vanguard
Research
22 Pages
Vanguard presents a framework for making currency hedging decisions at the total portfolio level rather than by asset class, arguing that investor objectives and strategic allocation should drive outcomes.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2018
Mapping the Unfolding US-China Trade War
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates maps the competing US and Chinese objectives driving the trade conflict, separating areas where compromise appears possible from deeper strategic tensions.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2018
Risk & Reward: Research and Investment Strategies
Invesco
Research
45 Pages
Invesco explores how factor investing drives active bond returns, arguing that much of what appears to be manager skill is actually systematic exposure to factors like value, carry, and liquidity.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2018
Global Macro Trends: New Playbook Required
KKR
Research
48 Pages
KKR explores how a shift from monetary to fiscal policy is reshaping global markets, pushing investors toward complexity and away from crowded trades.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2018
How the World Is Changing: The Secular Picture
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines how economic power has shifted toward emerging markets, reshaping where global growth, investment, and consumption occur.
Global Macroeconomics
October 2017
Our Biggest Economic, Social, and Political Issue
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines how headline economic averages can obscure a widening divide between the top 40% and bottom 60% of Americans
Global Macroeconomics
May 2017
The Big Picture
Bridgewater
Research
12 Pages
Bridgewater Associates explores how debt cycles, geopolitics, and internal political divides are reshaping the global order.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2017
Narrative Economics
Research
43 Pages
Professor Shiller address considers the epidemiology of narratives relevant to economic fluctuations.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2017
Populism: The Phenomenon
Bridgewater
Research
61 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines how populism emerges from widening wealth gaps, institutional distrust, and economic stress, drawing parallels between the 1930s and today.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2016
Systematic Global Macro
Research Affiliates
Research
12 Pages
Research Affiliates examines how systematic global macro strategies use carry, momentum, and value signals across stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities to generate diversifying returns.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2016
Global Debt: Challenges and Opportunities
Merrill Lynch
Research
16 Pages
Merrill Lynch examines the global debt surge and why decades of borrowing may be suppressing growth instead of supporting it.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2016
What Monetary Policy 3 (MP3) Will Look Like
Bridgewater
Research
8 Pages
Bridgewater explains why traditional monetary policy is approaching its limits and explores what a third phase of monetary policy could eventually require.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2016
What Does the Market Know?
Oaktree
Research
9 Pages
Oaktree Capital explores whether investors should treat market price movements as informed signals or emotional reactions.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2016
On the Couch
Oaktree
Research
16 Pages
Oaktree Capital Management examines how investor psychology, rather than changing fundamentals, often drives market behavior and pricing.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2016
Dynamic Currency Hedging Q4 2015
WisdomTree
Research
24 Pages
WisdomTree explores how dynamic currency hedging can improve international equity exposure by adjusting hedge ratios using value, momentum, and interest rate signals.
Portfolio Management
September 2015
It’s Not Easy
Oaktree
Research
15 Pages
Oaktree explains why consistently outperforming in investing is inherently difficult because markets adapt, competition eliminates easy opportunities, and superior results require uncommon thinking.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2015
The Macro Trader: Global Macro Research and Analytics
The Macro Trader
Research
31 Pages
The Macro Trader examines whether early 2015 deflation fears were overstated and argues markets were signaling a steadier economic backdrop than many expected.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2014
Economic World Cup 2014
IR&M
Research
41 Pages
Ineichen Research & Management mixes World Cup forecasting with macroeconomics, demographics, corruption, and market risk to argue that national economic conditions often mirror football success.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2013
Squeaky Bum Time
Absolute Return Partners
Research
14 Pages
Absolute Return Partners examines whether the powerful 2012 to 2013 equity rally reflects a genuine market bubble or a normal phase of the investment cycle.
Global Macroeconomics
November 2013
Deflationary Pressures Mounting in Europe
Pictet
Research
16 Pages
Pictet examines the global macroeconomic backdrop, market leadership, and the evolving case for hedge funds as financial conditions normalize.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2013
The Impact of Tapering on Risky Assets
Research Affiliates
Article
1 Pages
Research Affiliates examines how the Federal Reserve's eventual tapering of quantitative easing could reshape returns across major asset classes.
Global Macroeconomics
August 2013
Demobilizing the reserves
Grant's
Research
24 Pages
Grant’s examines the unprecedented buildup of Federal Reserve excess reserves following quantitative easing and questions whether policymakers can unwind them without disrupting markets.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2013
Currency Value
Research
58 Pages
The authors examine whether real exchange rates truly identify undervalued and overvalued currencies and find that traditional purchasing power parity measures can be misleading.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2013
Currency Risk Premia and Macro Fundamentals
Research
58 Pages
The authors examine whether macroeconomic fundamentals can consistently predict currency risk premia using a multi currency portfolio approach rather than traditional bilateral exchange rate models.
Global Macroeconomics
May 2013
A New Look at Currency Investing
CFA Institute
Research
106 Pages
This paper examines whether currencies deserve greater consideration as an institutional asset class by separating manager skill from systematic strategy returns.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2013
Kamikaze QE
Cantor Fitzgerald
Research
8 Pages
Cantor Fitzgerald examines how the Bank of Japan's aggressive quantitative easing could ignite a global currency war by reshaping trade balances and asset prices.
Global Macroeconomics
March 2013
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production and Real Retail Sales Advisor Perspectives
Research
24 Pages
This paper examines the four economic indicators most closely associated with U.S. recession dating and explains how they can help investors interpret the business cycle.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2013
Hyperinflations, Hysteria, and False Memories
GMO
Research
14 Pages
GMO examines what really causes hyperinflation, arguing that severe supply shocks, foreign currency debt, and social conflict matter far more than money printing alone.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2012
Calm before the storm
Grant's
Research
29 Pages
Grant’s Interest Rate Observer questions whether the Federal Reserve’s unconventional monetary policies can deliver the stable outcomes policymakers expect.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2012
Did Hurricane Sandy Depress The November ISM?
Pantheon
Research
3 Pages
Pantheon Macroeconomic Advisors examines whether Hurricane Sandy temporarily distorted the November 2012 ISM manufacturing survey and argues underlying economic momentum remained stronger than the headline suggested.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2012
Draghi Put Kicks In
IR&M
Research
45 Pages
Ineichen Research and Management examines the widening gap between weakening global economic fundamentals and increasingly optimistic market behavior following central bank intervention.
Global Macroeconomics
July 2012
Wriston’s Law of Capital
IR&M
Research
61 Pages
Ineichen Research & Management examines how “Wriston’s Law of Capital” shapes the movement of money, talent, and ideas across countries, arguing that capital gravitates toward jurisdictions where it is welcomed and treated well.
Financial History
March 2012
Déjà Vu All Over Again
Oaktree
Research
11 Pages
Oaktree Capital explains why investors should study history instead of assuming recent market trends will continue indefinitely.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2009
A Modern Day D-process: A Less Traumatic Result Will Result From Increased Dosages of Money
Bridgewater
Article
1 Pages
Bridgewater Associates examines how unprecedented monetary expansion could offset collapsing credit during the financial crisis, potentially making the deleveraging process less destructive
Markets
October 2008
The Limits to Negativism
Oaktree
Research
10 Pages
Oaktree examines how extreme investor pessimism can create opportunity by separating probable outcomes from emotional narratives during financial crises.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2008
The Really Big Picture; Not Just a Normal Recession
Bridgewater
Research
16 Pages
Bridgewater examines why the U.S. economy faced a structural deleveraging rather than a typical recession.
Financial History
September 2007
Now It’s All Bad?
Oaktree
Research
15 Pages
Oaktree examines how excessive leverage, easy liquidity, and shifting investor psychology turned a contained subprime mortgage problem into a broader credit crisis.
Miscellaneous
July 2007
It’s All Good… Really?
Oaktree
Research
10 Pages
Oaktree Capital Management explains how small financial shocks can spread through markets when leverage, psychology, and interconnected risks amplify their effects.
Global Macroeconomics
April 2005
What a Bubble Looks Like
Bridgewater
Research
3 Pages
Bridgewater examines the characteristics of speculative bubbles through the lens of the 2005 US homebuilding industry.
Economics
May 2004
Us and Them
Oaktree
Research
9 Pages
Oaktree Capital Management explores the fundamental differences between investors who believe they can forecast markets and those who embrace uncertainty.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2000
Bubble or Boom?
Bridgewater
Research
7 Pages
Bridgewater explores whether the late 1990s United States economy reflected a speculative bubble or a productivity boom.
Markets
January 2000
Bubble.com
Oaktree
Research
14 Pages
Oaktree Capital Management examines how speculative market bubbles develop, using the South Sea Bubble to draw striking parallels with the late 1990s technology boom.
Markets
May 1995
How the Game Should Be Played
Oaktree
Research
3 Pages
Oaktree Capital Management explains why successful investing should prioritize consistency and downside protection over bold predictions or headline grabbing wins.
Markets
April 1991
First Quarter Performance
Oaktree
Research
3 Pages
Oaktree Capital Management explains how investor psychology drives markets between extremes of fear and optimism, creating recurring valuation opportunities.
Global Macroeconomics
December 1986
Why the Economy Is Unresponsive to Stimulation or the Decline of the American Empire
Bridgewater
Research
12 Pages
Bridgewater examines how aggressive monetary stimulus, rapid debt growth, and changing global capital flows can coexist with disappointing economic performance.
Global Macroeconomics
January 1978
World Grains/Oilseeds/Products Analysis
Bridgewater
Research
10 Pages
Bridgewater examines the global grain and oilseed markets by combining supply, demand, livestock, and trade analysis into a forward looking commodity outlook.