Another Swing at The Plate

KKR

Henry McVey

Research

28 Pages

KKR explores key macro shifts shaping 2019, focusing on trade tensions, private equity opportunities, and a turning point in fixed income markets. It challenges consensus by arguing China’s internalization trend predates tariffs and that private equity could outperform despite rising uncertainty.

Key Takeaways

China Demand Shift: Exports fell from 36% of GDP in 2008 to 18%, with projections heading toward low double digits over 5–7 years, reshaping global trade exposure.
Private Equity Edge: European public markets overweight cyclicals while private markets target growth sectors, supporting expectations of relative outperformance over the next several years.
Fixed Income Inflection: U.S. credit markets show signs of regime change, favoring shorter duration strategies and higher upfront yield as volatility rises.
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