Beyond the Election: What Doesn’t Change Will Be a Lot More Than What Does

Bridgewater

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The authors argue that the forces shaping markets after the 2020 election matter more than the election itself. Persistent pandemic disruption, aggressive fiscal and monetary coordination, abundant liquidity, and Asia’s economic rise could continue driving unusually wide gaps across sectors, assets, and regions.

Key Takeaways

Pandemic Spending Divide: Travel and leisure spending remained roughly 40% below peak levels, illustrating how unevenly pandemic restrictions affected different parts of the economy.
Market Dispersion Matters: Energy stocks were down almost 50% while banks fell 20%, even as the broader US equity market was roughly unchanged.
Asia Gains Ground: China and the surrounding Asia bloc already accounted for as much global output as the US and Eurozone combined, alongside the majority of global growth.

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