Evergreen Gavekal examines why changes in money demand can be just as important as changes in money supply when evaluating markets and the economy. The piece argues that periods of rising cash hoarding can offset monetary expansion, helping explain why large liquidity injections do not always translate into higher inflation or stronger growth.
Demand And Supply Of Money
Gavekal
Louis-Vincent Gave
Research
7 Pages
Key Takeaways
AI Capex Shock: McKinsey estimates global data center rollout will cost US$6.7trn by 2030, requiring roughly US$1.5trn annually from debt and equity issuance.
Issuance Pressure Builds: Five companies are seeking roughly US$300bn, while Alphabet’s US$85bn stock issue dwarfs Google’s US$1.7bn IPO from 2004 by a wide margin.
Defense Spending Rises: Proposed defense budgets add another liquidity draw, with US spending moving from US$1trn to US$1.5trn and Europe from €200bn to €380bn.