Examining the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Economies

Bridgewater

Daniel Hochman, Karen Karniol-Tambour

Article

1 Pages

Bridgewater Associates examines how climate change could reshape global economies, emphasizing how uncertain the range of outcomes remains. Common models suggest relatively modest economic damage, while others estimate losses 10x larger, with hotter, lower income economies particularly exposed and policy responses potentially affecting markets well before physical consequences emerge.

Key Takeaways

Wide Outcome Range: At 3.5°C warming, models estimate global GDP losses ranging from roughly 1% to 62% by 2100, highlighting unusually large forecasting uncertainty.
Heat Threatens Productivity: In India, 75% of the labor force, or roughly 380 million people, is exposed to heat related productivity risks as temperatures rise.
Growth Risks Vary: Under 4.5°C warming, annual growth impacts could reach 3.1% in India, 2.8% in Thailand, and 2.3% in Indonesia
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