False Narratives Will Cost You Money

Clocktower Group

Research

29 Pages

Clocktower Group challenges popular macro stories, arguing recession certainty and simple Volcker comparisons can misprice markets. They highlight $2.6 trillion of excess savings as a reason growth could hold up longer than expected. Another pushback is that the dollar rally may be closer to exhausted than investors assume, setting up a shift toward non US assets.

Date published: June 2022

Key Takeaways

Savings buffer: $2.6 trillion in excess savings may keep demand alive despite inflation pressure.
Peak hawkishness: Rate path may look tough, yet the economy may not absorb the full impact quickly.
Dollar rotation: A softer dollar could support relative strength in non US assets and select commodities.
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