Flash Macro Update: U.S. Markets

KKR

Henry McVey

Research

19 Pages

KKR updates its U.S. market outlook around the Iran conflict, oil, inflation, and private credit repricing. It still leans muddle through, but now expects slower growth, higher headline inflation, and a lower S&P 500 target as energy and geopolitics feed through more directly.

Key Takeaways

Oil Path Reset: KKR now assumes $90 to $100 WTI in 2026, with peak sustained levels of $130 to $150, versus an earlier base case of $75 to $80.
Growth And CPI Shift: U.S. GDP forecasts fell to 2.0% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027, while headline CPI rose to 3.8% and 2.5%.
Equity Target Trimmed: KKR cut its 2026 S&P 500 target to 7,300 from 7,600 and lowered its 2026 EPS growth forecast to 8% from 11%.
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