Global Economics Comment: Global Economic Impacts of the War in Iran

Goldman Sachs

Research

9 Pages

Goldman Sachs evaluates the impact of the war in Iran on global growth, inflation, and policy rates.

Key Takeaways

Oil: The main economic impact for most countries is that the recent rise in oil prices to around $80/bbl will boost inflation and slow growth.
Inflation: If oil prices temporarily rise to $100/bbl, they estimate that global headline inflation could rise by 0.7pp and global growth could slow by 0.4pp.
Tighter Monetary Policy: Global central banks have historically not responded to oil price shocks, on average, but have modestly tightened rates when inflation is high and/or oil price shocks are large.
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