While BCG projects that total world trade in goods will grow at an average of 2.9% annually for the next ten years, they believe routes goods travel will change markedly. This report explains how.
Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade
BCG
Research
16 Pages
Key Takeaways
North America's Strengthening Trade Bloc: The U.S., Canada, and Mexico are consolidating into a more resilient trade bloc, aiming to reduce reliance on Asian imports, particularly from China. This shift is facilitated by policies promoting reshoring and friendshoring strategies.
China's Pivot to Emerging Markets: As trade with Western nations decelerates, China is intensifying its economic ties with the Global South, including regions like Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America. This realignment is expected to bolster China's trade growth with these areas, even as its commerce with the West declines.
Emergence of the Global South: Countries in the Global South, notably India and members of ASEAN, are ascending in global trade significance. Their trade is diversifying beyond commodities to encompass higher-value manufactured goods, reflecting advancements in industrial capabilities.
European Union's Strategic Reorientation: Facing stagnating trade with China, the EU is redirecting its trade focus toward established partners like the U.S. and Japan, as well as emerging markets such as India, Turkey, and African nations, to sustain growth and reduce dependencies.
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