How Fast Can Gulf Production Recover After Reopening?

Goldman Sachs

Research

11 Pages

Goldman Sachs analyzes how quickly Gulf crude production could rebound after the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Gulf output is estimated to be down 14.5mbd, or 57%, but production could mostly recover within months if reopening is safe and oil assets avoid renewed strikes.

Key Takeaways

Output Shock Large: Gulf crude production is down 14.5mbd, equal to 57% of pre-war supply.
Recovery Could Lag: External forecasts suggest 70% of lost production may recover within 3 months and 88% within 6 months.
Country Risks Differ: Iran and Iraq face greater recovery challenges, while Saudi Arabia may restore output faster.
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