New York Life’s Global Market Strategy team outlines a cautiously optimistic midyear outlook, highlighting a “Goldilocks” mix of steady disinflation and resilient labor markets. However, they flag risks from elevated policy uncertainty, tariff-related inflation, and consumer softness—advocating a balanced, risk-aware approach to allocation.
Macro Pulse
New York Life Investments
Research
63 Pages
Key Takeaways
Policy uncertainty rising: Elevated geopolitical and election-related uncertainty pose macro risks even as near-term growth and inflation data stabilize
Consumer cracks emerging: Weakness in discretionary spending and increasing household credit stress suggest the consumer may be near a tipping point
Income, quality, and flexibility favored: The team recommends tilting toward fixed income, high-quality equities, and diversified credit to manage downside risk while participating in selective growth
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