Mapping the World’s Prices – 2025

Deutsche Bank

Research

58 Pages

Deutsche Bank explores the increasing correlation between fiscal and monetary policy—what they call the “Fiscal Dominance Era.” The report argues that policy normalization has ended, with central banks pressured to accommodate rising sovereign debt loads. This alignment between fiscal largesse and monetary leniency risks market complacency, higher inflation persistence, and eventual financial repression. They state, “If 2012 marked “cheap US,” 2025 may represent “peak US”—at least in pricing terms.”

Key Takeaways

End of policy independence: Central banks are constrained by elevated government debt, limiting their ability to fight inflation decisively.
Inflation not transitory: Fiscal dominance may lead to structurally higher inflation due to sustained demand support and weaker monetary anchors.
Risks to market stability: Investors may underestimate volatility as central banks quietly shift toward debt accommodation under political pressure.

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