Deutsche Bank examines the growing threat to freedom of navigation and why markets may be underpricing maritime supply shocks. Tariffs have dominated headlines, yet physical disruptions like COVID, the Black Sea blockade and the Hormuz closure have hit import prices and trade volumes much harder. It sorts maritime shocks into three tiers and flags the Indo Pacific as the largest risk.
Sea change: the market implications of the threat to the maritime commons
Deutsche Bank
Oliver Harvey
Research
18 Pages
Key Takeaways
Tariffs Overshadow Blockades: Tariffs drew far more news coverage, yet the IMF cut global growth 1% after Ukraine versus 0.2% over two years for tariffs.
Three Tiers of Shocks: Localized disruptions mostly lift freight rates, regional blockades like Hormuz hit trade volumes and global disruptions risk a worldwide recession.
Asia, Europe Most Exposed: Singapore, the Philippines, Vietnam, the Netherlands and Korea score as most vulnerable given heavy maritime trade and limited naval resources.
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