Tech Trumps Tariffs: US Exceptionalism and the AI Productivity Boom

Hudson Bay Capital

Nouriel Roubini

Research

18 Pages

Nouriel Roubini’s latest covers on the coming AI-driven secular boom, why Tech Trumps Tariffs, why American Exceptionalism is not over and thus the stock market is not in an AI bubble, and why the Exorbitant Privilege of the US Dollar isn’t over and thus US dollar weakness is temporary.

Key Takeaways

AI lifts growth: AI could add 0.5% to 1.5% to annual productivity and push potential growth toward 4%.
Markets impose limits: Post tariff stress helped pressure policymakers toward narrower trade goals and less damaging outcomes.
Valuations may hold: The paper argues fair value can stay elevated if earnings keep tracking faster productivity growth.
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